At the end of March, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,342.1 billion.

Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on April 7 shows that, as of the end of March 2026, China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$33,421 billion, down by US$85.7 billion from the end of February, a decline of 2.5%.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that in March 2026, affected by factors such as the global macro environment, the monetary policies and expectations of major economies, the U.S. dollar index rose and the prices of major global financial assets fell. Driven by the combined effects of factors such as foreign-exchange rate translation and changes in asset prices, the size of foreign exchange reserves decreased that month.

Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China Securities, analyzed and said that, influenced by the global macro environment and the monetary policies and expectations of major economies, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen. After three months, it once again reached the 100 level; for the full month, it rose by 2.4% to 99.96. The prices of non-U.S. dollar currencies and global financial assets generally declined. The U.S.-dollar-denominated hedged global bond index fell by 1.8%, and the S&P 500 stock index fell by 5.1%.

“In March, the conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate, and crude oil exports were obstructed, leading to higher crude oil prices and a broad decline in global asset prices. Higher oil prices boosted inflation expectations, and the market even began to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Supported by the dual forces of high interest rates staying in place for longer and safe-haven funds returning, the U.S. dollar index extended its upward trend,” said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.

In addition, regarding changes in asset prices, Pang Ming, a specially appointed senior research fellow at the National Institute of Financial and Development, said that driven by the global macro environment and expectations for monetary policies in major economies, volatility in global major markets intensified. The prices of various major financial assets generally fell, while the U.S. dollar—serving as a safe-haven asset—rebounded to some extent. “Overall, the US$85.7 billion decline was more due to ‘accounting treatment’ effects caused by intense volatility in global financial markets.”

Looking ahead, Pang Ming believes that although month-to-month data fluctuates significantly, China’s foreign exchange reserves as a whole remain solidly above US$3.3 trillion, with extremely strong capacity to withstand external shocks.

“From a macro fundamentals perspective, as domestic industrial upgrading and continued efforts in exporting high value-added products such as the ‘new three categories’ keep gaining momentum, China’s current account surplus will continue to play the role of a ‘stabilizing anchor,’ providing a source of fresh support for the stability of foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the safe-haven attribute of renminbi assets has become increasingly prominent in a volatile environment, and the trend of medium- to long-term foreign capital inflows has not reversed,” Pang Ming said.

Wen Bin said that in the next stage, exports will continue to play the role of the fundamental driver of the balance of international payments. “Since the beginning of this year, China’s export performance has far exceeded expectations. This not only reflects the resilience of external demand, but also is the result of the diversification of China’s export markets and upgrades in the structure of export commodities. Against the backdrop of oil price shocks hitting global supply and production chains, China’s advantages in new-energy manufacturing and across the entire industrial chain will be further highlighted,” Wen Bin said. “As for cross-border capital flows, as China continues to expand market access for the services sector and steadily deepens institutional opening-up, the facilitation level for cross-border investment and financing has been continuously improving, and foreign direct investment will remain stable. Meanwhile, valuation advantages and allocation value of renminbi assets are becoming more prominent, and inflows into securities investment are expected to continue at a reasonable scale.”

Pang Ming expects that in the future, the scale of foreign exchange reserves will continue to remain generally stable amid fluctuations, sufficient to support national financial security and the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. (Reporter Chen Hanyang)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            foreign exchange
                                                            foreign exchange reserves