Bitcoin drops again, falling below $94,000, erasing all gains this year

On Beijing time on the 17th, after rallying to $96,600, Bitcoin once again plunged, briefly falling to $93,778.6 and wiping out all gains made this year. Around 7:00 a.m., Bitcoin was down more than 1%, dipping below $95,000. Multiple crypto products followed suit.

Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 150k people worldwide were liquidated across the global crypto market.

On the news front: in recent days, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled off, and overall risk appetite in the U.S. has clearly declined.

According to Securities Times, citing CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December fell below 50%, at just 44.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged rose to 55.6%; the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points from the Federal Reserve through January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points is 16.7%.

As previously reported by China Finance and Economics News, short-term interest rate futures (the best real-time indicator reflecting financial markets’ expectations for Fed policy) show that the likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates on December 10 has already dropped to 47%, whereas earlier last week that probability was still 67%.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will be able to obtain complete data—such as the U.S. September employment report, inflation figures, retail sales, and the initial estimate of Q3 GDP—before its policy meeting on December 9–10. The key will be whether the October and November employment reports can be released on time.

In addition, Bank of America and Nomura have already forecast in their research notes that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in December.

Also, according to CCTV News, on the 14th, Logan, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank—under the Federal Reserve—said, unless she sees clear evidence that U.S. inflation is falling back faster, she does not support the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December. Logan noted that current U.S. inflation is still on an upward trend, and returning to the 2% target will take time.

Previously, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the U.S. government “shutdown” led to missing economic data, making him even more cautious about further rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook also said that, given the double risks from inflation and the labor market outlook, it is currently not possible to confirm that there will be another rate cut in December.

(Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act on it at their own risk.)

(Editor: Wenjing)

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