Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News updates, on April 4 (UTC+8), the U.S. released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing that the country added 178k jobs, far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of lower probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, the report has provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “fast and decisive” script from Trump is moving toward collapse. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the start of the war is set to be released soon, and inflation could run out of control. Some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, a speech by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, initial weekly jobless claims in the U.S., the U.S. February core PCE price index year-over-year, the U.S. February personal spending month-over-month, the final estimate of the U.S. fourth-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final estimate of the U.S. fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final estimate of the U.S. fourth-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month; Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year/core CPI year-over-year, and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month/core CPI month-over-month. Friday 22:00, the initial value of the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial value of the U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month (source: PANews)