XRP is heading into its weakest period since the FTX collapse, with data revealing a widening gap between market price and actual investor returns — even amid increasing network activity.

The token is trading around $1.30, marking a decline of over 3% in the last 24 hours and continuing a downward trend on a weekly basis.

More importantly, the MVRV (market value versus realized) indicator, which measures the average profit or loss of investors, shows that XRP holders are at a loss of approximately 41% — the lowest level since November 2022, when the FTX bankruptcy shook the crypto market.

Investors Underwater

The decline in MVRV signals that a significant portion of the market is holding positions at a loss — a situation historically associated with late-stage bear cycles or potential accumulation zones. Similar levels were observed at the end of 2022, just before XRP began a sharp recovery in the following months.
However, the current dynamics differ in one key aspect: there is no strong catalyst for a reversal, as the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain and capital is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin and ETF products.

Growth Without Price

Paradoxically, the weak price action contrasts with the network’s fundamental metrics. The number of wallets on the XRP Ledger has surpassed 8.1 million — a historical high that highlights ongoing user interest, especially among retail participants.
This growth suggests that despite losses, participants are not exiting the ecosystem en masse. Instead, there is a broader distribution of holdings, which may limit volatility but also hinder rapid price recovery.

Retail Dominance

Data indicates that XRP remains heavily dominated by retail investors — a factor that often leads to more emotional market movements and lower liquidity compared to assets supported by institutional capital.

Nevertheless, interest in XRP ETF products in the U.S. in 2026 reveals that institutional interest around the asset has not completely disappeared. This creates potential for future capital reallocation if market conditions stabilize.

A Critical Moment for XRP

The combination of deep unrealized losses and a growing user base places XRP in a unique position. On one hand, such levels of MVRV have historically signaled undervaluation. On the other hand, the lack of strong institutional flows and competition from other crypto assets limit upside potential in the short term.

For investors, this means XRP is entering a critical phase where market psychology will play as important a role as fundamental indicators. The question remains whether the current losses will serve as a foundation for the next bullish cycle — or signal a deeper consolidation.