Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update. On April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing the country added 178k jobs, far exceeding expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of the market’s reduced probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick win” script that Trump is counting on is moving toward collapse. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, and inflation could run wild. Some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing Time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, a speech by 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims in the U.S., the U.S. February core PCE price index year-over-year rate, the U.S. February personal spending month-over-month rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly growth rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month rate; Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year / core CPI year-over-year, and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month / core CPI month-over-month. Friday 22:00, the initial estimate of U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month rate (source: PANews)