[Red Envelope] While the broad rebound with reduced volume is good, caution is still needed to prevent the index from continuing to decline.

Short-term trading is an art. It uses a market that shifts by the second as its canvas, uses keen insight as its brush, and uses decisive execution as its paint. A true masterpiece isn’t born from chasing random fluctuations; it’s completed by accurately capturing and resonating with the market’s core “intensity”—drawing direction where sentiment is boiling, laying out structure as sectors rotate, and then putting the finishing touch at the moment individual stocks lead the rally. ————The Compounding Artist[Taoguba]

Artist’s Dining Hall — Post-Review:

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Although the index’s performance today wasn’t very strong, individual stocks generally moved higher, giving a really solid repair行情. However, volume power is still sluggish. Intraday volume was only 1.61 trillion. The last time it was like this was around December 17. After that, the market directly ran 17 straight days of gains, starting a major行情. But back then the situation is still very different from today, so you can’t simply copy-paste it. Another wave of consecutive-gain big行情? It’s only emphasizing that with volume continuing to stay weak, the market will ultimately have to choose a direction to release volume—up or down. It can’t be confirmed. And if volume continues to stay weak, it’s purely a game of on-exchange funds. Exiting with profits early is the safest. Even though the index gave a broad rebound today, a close look at the candlesticks shows they are completely contained within Friday’s bearish candle. That means today’s broad-based rise doesn’t necessarily imply the index will deliver a continuous rebound. The direction is still uncertain, and there remains a risk of a further drop. In the earlier stage, part of our logic was left-side positioning—after the index fell sharply, attempting to bottom-pick on the left side. But after the index has broken down consecutively, the trend has changed in some way. At this point, it’s more about right-side positioning. For the short term, you need to focus more and run with lighter positions—that’s the safest approach. Our expectation for the index is that it may test lower tomorrow. With hundreds of stocks hitting limit-up intraday, the next day will be hard to continue holding/adding positions. Coupled with the uncertainty in the offshore negotiation news, we still need to proceed cautiously.

Today’s Market Analysis:

From the index, after two consecutive days of freezing at a low point, the market delivered a broad-based up move. With no major rebound effect coming from abroad, the index’s repair today was much stronger than overseas. Near the end of the morning session, the index briefly pulled back. When it was about to break below the zero line, it still forced itself back into positive territory. Overall, the repair exceeded expectations. From the volume, the total traded value across both markets was 1.61 trillion, a further缩量 of -2.54% versus yesterday, down 42.1 billion. Volume has shrunk for three straight days—clear signs of a competition for scarce liquidity (stock-inventory game). From sentiment, across both markets there were 93 stocks hitting limit-up, 4 hitting limit-down, 3,804 advancing, and 1,300 declining. Yesterday’s limit-up stocks and today’s overall average advance were 1.56%. The intraday profit-making effect has clearly been repaired. Individual stocks saw a broad-based up move. The only issue is that 25 stocks had board-failure (炸板) intraday. With 93 limit-up stocks on top of that, in a shrinking-volume market, closing/holding so many limit-ups can be difficult. The difficulty of providing some premium (溢价) the next day also increases.

From the sectors, both markets traded in a red-and-green oscillation with the whole day ending red. Some themes rotated strongly. Due to geopolitical conflict, the chemical sector fueled continuously throughout the day, with nearly 30 stocks hitting limit-up. In the pharma sector, after a brief split in the early session, the sector’s core quickly flowed back; Tianjin Pharmaceutical (津药药业) hit a seventh consecutive limit-up. In the cross-border payments sector, sparked by news about RMB settlement, Cuiwei Stock (翠微股份) hit two consecutive limit-ups. Other sectors—domestic chips, memory, nonferrous metals, and sports, etc.—rotated quickly. Market sentiment was somewhat repaired, and short-term mood focused on core sectors.

Artist Chat: Sectors:

1、Pharmaceuticals
In the pharma direction today, there was no new one-word limit-up補涨 from low positions to provide an assist. After Tianjin Pharmaceutical quickly surged to a limit-up at the open, seeing that its “followers” didn’t have much action, it directly炸板. Later, after XinTian Pharmaceutical (新天药业) reached the board, Tianjin Pharmaceutical began to do a comeback/final repurchase closure (做回封). Today also counts as Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s first real test of sufficient turnover (full turnover). It also blasted out a huge天量. Although it managed to pass the test intraday, tomorrow’s situation is still hard to say. The key is mainly what regulators say—whether they will allow Tianjin Pharmaceutical to continue opening up the short-term height. Today, Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s popularity is indeed very high, but you can also clearly sense that it lacks a certain ability to drive the sector. It didn’t bring a rapid sector-wide return flow. It’s more biased toward high-level group-hugging stocks. We don’t yet know how Tianjin Pharmaceutical will fare with regulatory expectations. Even the trend-type stock Wanbangde (万邦德) is moving slowly while trying to avoid/keep within bounds (卡异动). These are currently problems within the sector. Once regulation tightens, and if the “avoid abnormal movement” fails and differences emerge among high-level names, it will definitely bring some negative feedback to the sector. When gaming in recent days, you need to anchor to the high-level situation—watch how divergence at the high level evolves. Focus more on low-position补涨 candidates, because low positions have some room for补涨 and the cost-performance (性价比) is relatively high.

2、Electric Power
After short-term oversold conditions, electric power finally welcomed a rebound from oversold today. The biggest bear early on, Guangxi Energy (广西能源), after three consecutive limit-downs, opened today and—first time—it didn’t immediately sell off again. You could clearly see the intent to stop the decline. Even though the sector overall repaired, besides one limit-up from East (东方), the gains in GCL Energy Tech (协鑫能科), Energy Saving Wind Power (节能风电), and Huadian Liaoning Energy (华电辽能) were a bit larger. Other names only gave small red candles. Earlier, for the candidates going from 3 to 4 (三进四), Xinhonggang (新中港) and Tongda Shares (通达股份) had different outcomes: one did a back-cover (反包), and the other failed to hold the board. This is exactly the issue in what we’ve been emphasizing about the cost-performance of sectors during the ebb-tide/gaming退潮期. Other than the repair certainty that Huadian Liaoning Energy offers being relatively high, and the fact that recent high-visibility high-level names repaired a bit more strongly, the strength of repair in other previously popular stocks is more random. That creates some difficulty in stock selection. In short, sectors in the ebb-tide phase are not recommended to participate. Even a bounce-reversal (反抽) during gaming can’t be certain how much strength it will deliver. Instead, you might miss other better opportunities and行情 up above. Currently, electric power is not only in the ebb-tide phase, but also has some risk-avoidance characteristics. More likely, it may only show a bit when the index environment is not good.

3、Computing Power
Computing power moved unusually on Friday. In theory, it should be the result of holiday-related news gaming, but in practice it didn’t ferment into anything particularly hot. The call auction on Friday where Yuntai Zhiliann (云赛智联) straight-hit limit-up opened low and didn’t provide any premium. Even Hangjin Technology (航锦科技), which was sent a letter and put on file over the holiday, directly hit the limit-down. So it’s easy to understand that the sector didn’t perform much intraday. Tonglian Electronics (利通电子) did once cap the board in the morning, but later it was quickly smashed open. In the afternoon, there was some mild return flow during intraday trading, but clearly the力度 wasn’t enough. Every time we think computing power should perform, it fizzles out. When we think “it’s not行,” it pops up obviously again. The whole sector moves in a very tangled way. Even if it hits limit-up intraday, it’s easy to炸板; if it holds, it’s still hard to provide premium the next day. If this continues, participating funds’ confidence will only weaken further. Good temperament and stock behavior both need time to be cultivated. Going forward, you still need to wait until the sector truly produces a core with strength and continuity—only then does the cost-performance of participating become high. Otherwise, it’s more like waiting/lying in the shadows, and certainty isn’t very high.

4、Commercial Space
Commercial space today was overall weak at the open. On Friday’s early session, Tongyu Communications (通宇通讯) quickly hit limit-up, but today in the auction it didn’t directly provide any premium. After opening slightly high, sector stocks basically probed down quickly. Based on the fact that Friday’s negative news was resolved on the day, funds cashed out that day. Today there wasn’t a further large-scale selloff—giving the lurking funds a dignified exit opportunity. At present, the only sector name with a comparatively better trend is Tianyin Electromechanical (天银机电). It’s a trend-type group-hug stock selected within this kind of sector. Today it also provided a relatively sufficient low-buy opportunity. Tongyu Communications also has a slightly nicer chart shape. Other relatively core names have basically already tested prior highs and are now starting to pull back. For the short term, if there’s no continued news catalyst about commercial space, the sector probably won’t break out into another big行情. There’s currently no particularly suitable gaming entry point. It’s best to wait until there is related launch expectations, then combine that with the price action to see whether it’s necessary to step in.

5、AI Hardware
The AI hardware direction was overall just so-so today. In the early session, it kept quickly surging and then falling back. In the sub-precision field of fiber optics, although Tongding Connectivity (通鼎互联) rapidly got to the board, Huiyuan Communications (汇源通信) and Farseng Sheng (法尔胜) also continued to open as one-word limits with strength. But the group-leading stock in the space—Changfei Optics and Fibers (长飞光纤)—didn’t move strongly today, which caused the whole sector to be unable to lift overall. The optical module direction also surged and then pulled back. Only after the afternoon did the “three brothers” warm up somewhat. Under the sustained aggressive push from Jizhong Xuchuang (中际旭创) and Xin Yisheng (新易盛), the Shenzhen-Chinext (创业板) index was finally pulled back into positive territory. The fiber-optics sector is naturally anchored by Changfei Optics and Fibers. Changfei is a “mingpai” group-hugging stock. This falls into the category of “believe early and believe it again.” For such agency/insti-led names, as long as the trend hasn’t turned bad, it’s mainly about buying on dips. Most likely it will attempt to test the prior high. If it reaches the prior high and there’s a behavior with explosive volume, then you need to retreat in time and take profits quickly. Then patiently wait for the next pullback stabilization.

Every morning there are news headlines and a精选 list of core stocks. Family members, pay attention to the Artist—keep up with the steps, don’t get lost. The early-session content is basically the sectors that I整理 out which the market already has expectations for! Family members, like the post—also you can reward points or give encouragement!**

I’ve heard too many big principles and market theories. A lot of people still don’t know how to put them into practice. So I share my own “Intensity Pyramid System.” It can bring you growth, and it’s worth taking seriously. People who always want to get things for free at zero cost can only stay at the surface layer of trading. Those who touch the initial intention—hoping the ones who are fated enough to follow this post won’t be stuck in confusion. But the market will evolve all the same. So likewise, our “Intensity Pyramid” system will also evolve. In the future, within a dynamically changing market, I will also add new “dimensions” to it based on different market conditions, making it more suitable for different market cycles. **