4.7 Once again, He Fu Mo En appears. Is it because the quantification is too rigid, or is the model too classic?

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From now on, every stock I follow or unfollow will come with a logic breakdown. Brothers who are interested in learning can read along with the early-session thoughts. Once you’ve learned the logic, you can slowly add your own understanding!**
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This is a recent live-stream replay. Brothers who missed it can take a look.

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First is an overview of the market**

** First, as always, let’s take a look at the early-session thoughts.** On the weekend, there basically weren’t any special news catalysts. Most of the attention is still on whether the U.S. and Iran will reach talks. Right now, it’s about a middleman trying to reconcile both sides. But when I looked at the U.S.’s conditions and Langzi’s conditions, there are principled contradictions. So here, assuming both sides’ bottom lines don’t change, it basically won’t get resolved. Whether it’s last night’s U.S. stocks or today’s Japan and South Korea—no matter which—you can see that at this stage, capital isn’t in a hurry to launch an attack. More of it is waiting and watching for the shoe to drop. Tonight is the final ultimatum time the U.S. set. That also means if tonight Langzi doesn’t back down, the U.S. will start blowing up Langzi’s infrastructure. Similarly, Langzi has also been放狠话 about blowing up the U.S.’s related facilities in the Middle East. So if both sides end up stuck in a deadlock and oil prices can’t come down—then in theory that’s bearish for technology, because inflation will affect interest rates. The U.S. nonfarm data already exploded, so it may be paving the way for later rate hikes. On Friday, the only themes you could really look at on the market were optical communication and innovative drugs. So today, let’s see which of these two is stronger. Optical communication depends entirely on Zhaofei’s mood. Falsheng hit the card after being activated abnormally; today it opened straight to the one-character limit. But Zhaofei didn’t move, so optical communication couldn’t get going. Tongding pulled up at the end of the session on Friday and got a one-tick board at the open today, but it couldn’t lift the whole sector. As for innovative drugs, actually the opening was already the dispute being realized: Jinyao opened high and capped within five seconds, but then it got smashed down hard. After that, when it looked like technology couldn’t rise, that’s when it did the回封. Today Jinyao’s divergence matched expectations. After all, Meiji bought on Friday, and the sector’s fermentation wasn’t strong. Today’s limit-up was entering on the abnormal movement. Here you need to pay attention: in situations with heavy volume, the chips are definitely a bit “dirty,” so today’s regulatory stance won’t have a small impact on Jinyao.

** As for sentiment**, Xinghui topped the board then got炸板 on Friday—basically an eight-board height on the main board exploding. In the end it stayed around the seven-board height. The feedback at the opening auction is very important: if the auction opens red and then反包, that’s a positive for the “elasticity” side and can draw in liquidity. But Xinghui today opened by pressing down to the down limit in the auction; it only pulled up around 9:25, opening slightly down. Overall, its influence wasn’t big. What I originally thought today was to watch Jinyao and the 二进三 below it: if Jinyao continues to advance, it would open up height and also see fermentation补涨. If Jinyao cuts off the board, then the 二进三’s height is also not high, and it becomes easier to keep穿越 later. But honestly, today the difficulty for several continuation stocks is fairly high. Huiyuan is natural big-ticket orders; based on Friday’s lock-up volume situation, you can’t buy it. Then for other same-rank names opening around the limit-up area, it’s basically “heads on” (no choice) to join in. As for Jinyao, it opened high and went straight to a秒板. Later it炸板 with huge volume, but it was rescued by a low-position Xintian Yaoye. The回封 plus tracking order also indicates the selling pressure is manageable.

Jinyao going from six to seven boards: actually the fermentation on Friday already couldn’t keep up. So you can only say it was a bit more about going along with the crowd. Today it had seven-point abnormal movement; the auction already opened with more than five points. So theoretically, getting爆头 after a秒板 is also reasonable. The divergence was too little, and profit-taking accumulated a lot in advance due to the acceleration. But the fact it can回封 today is still beyond expectations. Meanwhile, whether it’s the “group”属性 or the “pharmaceutical as a defensive hedge” attribute, it shows the current market isn’t great.

As for 二进三, this is originally a Jinyao 穿越 node. If they are strong, they push back on Jinyao—meaning if Jinyao is strong, it will also bring them along. Similar models are Hefei and Mo’en. With a “ming card” like Huiyuan Tongxin—severely缩量—this isn’t the kind you should be buying. So today’s one-word board pushing forward toward Xintaiwang or Jinyao isn’t something you participate in easily otherwise. Here, someone will definitely say today’s first-board is the node. Of course from the perspective that Jinyao 爆量 can be a node, but you need to have Jinyao’s auction self-destruction to confirm the node 天津药竞价自爆. At the same time, you need to注意: most of the chemical stocks are charts of oversold rebounds. That means when you pull up chemical today, it’s not that chemicals are really that “awesome.” If the real logic were truly amazing, why couldn’t the early trend continue and instead went into an A-kill? So more likely it’s high-low switching driven by quant models.

As for 一进二, today the advancement rate is still very low, which shows that on the last day before the holiday, people really didn’t do much positioning. For Cuiwei shares, you could say it’s RMB settlement fermentation—it delivered a board, or you could also say it provided guidance that there’s a护盘 here so don’t panic. In Zhonganke’s case, there has been token-related news for a long time, but the cloud computing leasing sector just can’t get going. It feels like institutions are keeping it down so you go chase AI hardware. For Shanquan Group, Dongyue Silicone’s opening-auction guidance; but this stock has fragmented share capital and a big float, so in theory if you participate you’d only be able to cancel and withdraw orders.

Finally, let’s look at today’s trading approach. On Friday, several first-board three candidates didn’t express themselves in the auction. But Huiyuan’s natural big-ticket one-word board did. That means Friday’s first-board node wasn’t right. The focus is really on 连板 continuation. In terms of the open, opportunities are fleeting. Xintaiwang 秒封, and Jinyao also 秒板. If you didn’t take action by then, you would be left out (missed the train). But later, if Jinyao got smashed with爆量, then many who didn’t manage to buy today would have the chance to buy. Add regulatory factors, and it’s easy for things to go wrong if people rush in first. So personally, I didn’t go into Jinyao today. If it were just because it’s超预期, then you could go. But once it started爆量 later, going then is a bit like betting: betting that the regulatory impact won’t be big. That would require the broader market to be falling and for regulation to loosen. Originally, I watched Zhongyao to see if it could break away from Jinyao: if Jinyao is strong, Zhongyao can’t break away; it followed a blocking-the-knife pattern. Huiyuan is hard, so Taishan can only “heads on.” Overall, today the continuation likely won’t feel comfortable.

For this 一进二 batch: as I said above, as long as there’s a “live mouth” (survivor), the node will likely be wrong—especially when Huiyuan’s hardness doesn’t allow it at three. So today’s setup may just be quant-driven high-low switching laid out across the board. Tomorrow, the so-called补涨 competition will be brutal. First-board signals mainly tell you to look at elasticity. Elasticity depends on Xinghui’s response. If Xinghui’s auction opens red and then does a反包, you can expect elasticity leading to advancement—and it could make you fight for “money” against main-board continuation. But if Xinghui opens slightly down, its attitude isn’t good. Never mind that chemical had so many limit-ups in the morning; why couldn’t Xinghui rise quickly in the morning.

Next, let’s extract information from the auction. Yilida’s largest order: actual controller change. Pre-market guidance said that if the largest order is maintained, pay attention to the 一进二 involving Zhejiang. When Huiyuan Tongxin opened, it was a big order. Although later it withdrew a lot, as long as it’s a natural big order, it means strength is online. It also indicates a three-point guidance node. Cuiwei also topped with a one-character limit. RMB settlement—so you can only say CNPC deliberately “held back” on Friday. If it’s RMB settlement, then CNPC’s辨识度 would be higher. Zhuhai Zhongfu also has an actual controller change, but the orders it opened with weren’t that big, so it means the “Guangdong benefits” can’t be taken. Falsheng: it already “tripped” the abnormal move on Friday. Its auction opened as a one-character limit—very strong. If this stock isn’t an ST issue, I guess many people would have bought it. That’s a typical “group-hugging”走势. Xindoduo having this kind of premium: I guess later the quants will accelerate with his stock. Xinghui’s side: its auction was pressed to the down limit. Although it炸板 on Friday, it didn’t fall to down limit, so with this kind of attitude, we can’t really say how good the elasticity is.

At 9:20, I thought I was seeing things. There was just one Huiyuan topping a one-character limit, and the rest were tens of millions with orders in the hundreds of millions. But then Furong suddenly added to five hundred million, and later to seven hundred million. In theory, Furong with the largest order should ferment its Furong attribute, yet the market didn’t recognize it—so with regard to the largest order in the auction, you still need to pay attention to the node and its own attributes. A pure auction largest order tends to be unrecognized. Huiyuan Tongxin indicated “hardness three”—pay attention to whether it sells off at the open. If it gets hit at the open, it not only affects Jinyao but also affects the low-position setups. If Huiyuan manages to take Jinyao down together, then today’s first-board and 一进二 become easy to align wrong. Xintaiwang also opened to mirror Jinyao—near limit-up. But this stock from a second-wave angle has too severe缩量; it may be because Huiyuan is strong, and same-rank names have heavy locking of chips. That definitely isn’t good for hitting higher levels later. Jinyao秒板 at the open, plus Huiyuan didn’t get smashed—so first, that means the node isn’t right. Later when Jinyao got炸, Huiyuan didn’t get炸. Then either it’s a bet on Jinyao回封, or you just have to wait.

Falsheng opened as a one-character limit. The opening also hinted at Xindoduo. Combined with the opening abnormal move in batteries, the answer is Guosheng Technology. So it feels like right now everything is centered around the group-hugging of Xindoduo. As long as a stock from the Xindoduo stock pool can “stick on” to the market hotspot, quants will do it. After the open, oil stocks surged. In theory that’s energy. So there was also a rise for power at the open. In a反包 structure, I looked at Datong shares too—it was more active than Xinzhonggang. Datong had an abnormal move, hinting at an arbitrage opportunity involving Xinzhonggang convertible bonds. These two stocks are fresh and hot. Today I went to Datong shares, and afterward I still need to reflect: if there’s bond arbitrage, why go get beaten in the equity market? But on the chemical side, there can be oversold rebounds. For power, in theory there’s still room.

Finally, summarize today’s overall market. It’s the first day after the holiday. Even though it looks like a broad-based rise, the action is still very disgusting. Why? The strongest in the morning was chemicals. Retail investors are very few in that sector because oil was strong earlier, and chemicals had already disconnected. Looking from the logic: if oil is strong and chemical products’ prices rise, then even without连板 height, the swing-trend opportunity should be solid and obvious. But what happened? Since everyone was already bullish on chemicals, the prior recognizability names like Golden Bull and Chitianhua all went into an A-kill. So what we can see is that quant models find areas with fewer retail investors and then keep high-low switching. On Friday, the strongest was optical communication. Zhaofei couldn’t even pull up at the open and started shaking, so optical communication had an initial surge at the open and then kept falling back. Even elasticity names like Zhili Fang also fell back ten points. Cloud computing leasing, power, innovative drugs, lithium batteries—all rotated like an electric fan. So when you reflect on it in the market, recent hotspots aren’t strong. What’s strong is oversold chemical rebounds—so can the money-making effect be good? On the Hong Kong side, Easter is continuing to have holiday rest, so today’s trading volume is about the same as Friday. The question then is: Friday was pre-holiday risk aversion, and capital didn’t want to come in—so is it still avoiding risk today? That’s why technology names had a “surge then fade” pattern in the morning: because the news is uncertain overnight, capital started to watch and wait.

In the afternoon, the market is similar to the pre-holiday: oscillation and consumption, pretty boring. At present, opportunities are basically the first half hour after the open, and then it’s mostly garbage time. The strongest in the morning was chemicals; in the afternoon it just maintained some sector heat, but at least fermented through the whole day. Worth noting: there was a football news item pre-market, and then it was released and pulled up in the afternoon open. That was more like a sign the existing themes in the market weren’t recognized. Shuhua Sports and Hefei China both had quasi-“di Tian” formations today. The common point is a cross-strait attribute—there’s a bit of a group-hug vibe. At the moment, for the broader market: when it falls, there is support; when it rises, there is sell pressure. It’s a quant-driven rotational market. For the next direction, we probably need to wait until tonight’s news lands.

Replay of the 连板 (consecutive limit-up) action

1. Seven boards
   Jinyao Pharmaceutical Tianjin Innovation drug Assisted reproduction Good share structure. Even Meiji can’t kill it—today it had severe abnormal movement. Let’s see what the regulators say.

2. Three boards
   Jinyao cross-through node. It requires Jinyao to keep raising expectations.

3. Huiyuan Communication Sichuan Fiber Smart grid Small float, general share structure. Hardness three today—this is a cross-through node, and the strength reflects back on Jinyao.

4. Xintaiwang Shandong Cable Fiber Huiyuan Communication’s arbitrage—this is an arbitrage product you can’t buy from Huiyuan Communication. Opening near the limit-up is also about setting up an industrial-chain layout.

5. Two boards

6. Cuiwei Shares Beijing RMB settlement. Weekend RMB settlement fermentation happened—CNPC even brought it along to touch the board.

7. Zhonganke Hubei Cloud computing. Info security. A 秒板 that can’t lift cloud computing; it hints at “tech security.”

8. Shanquan Group Shandong Solid-state. Silicon energy. Acrylic acid. Photoresist. Tiny share structure. It ate Dongyue Silicon’s energy and showed a “Wodaoban” (悟道 board) nature.

9. Huashengchang Guangdong Power grid. Optical communication. AI glasses. Energy storage. Second-wave trend: a rotten board, but the volume is still decent.

10. First boards
    Chemical stocks are mostly oversold rebounds. Treat it as a quant-driven high-low switching theme. Jinyao went爆量, but Huiyuan wouldn’t allow it—so the node was wrong.

11. Furong Technology Sichuan Fujian The major shareholder is an Apple-related folded-screen concept. Excellent share structure. Largest order in the auction, but the Apple folded-screen fermentation couldn’t keep up.

12. Falsheng Jiangsu Fiber Energy storage Xindoduo concept. After Friday it “tripped” the abnormal move; today it opened straight one-character limit. It has the taste of Chen Xiaoq.

13. Zhenhai Shares Zhejiang Petrochemical engineering Hydrogen energy Tiny share structure. Because of the name, it was previously always considered “suppressing overseas technology,” meaning it’s an optical-communication adversary.

14. Gaole Shares Guangdong Equity offering. Financing. Trend gaming IP economy. Tiny share structure. Consumer-type—feels off.

15. Xintian Pharmaceutical Guizhou Innovative drugs. General share structure. But it acted as a rescuer—whether it will be “used and then discarded” determines Jinyao’s vibe.

16. Tongding Hùlián Jiangsu Optical communication. It抢了 the tail end on Friday, and today it pulled to limit-up right at the open, matching a strong positioning. But the sector seems to be dragging a bit behind.

17. Huanmai Technology Jiangsu Optical communication. Same batch as Huiyuan Communication. Main rise with a meal-dedicated “rabbithole package.”

18. Jiannan High-Quality Fibers Jiangsu Chemical fiber. General share structure.

19. Dinxin Communications Shandong Smart grid. Flow battery energy storage. Chips. Excellent share structure. A grid-category “live mouth” in action; it could also be a funnel for chips.

20. Teda股份 Tianjin Power battery recycling Carbon neutrality. Treat it as just a Tianjin補涨. General share structure.

21. Oriental New Energy Beijing Photovoltaic Green power Ecological agriculture Oversold rebound. From a landscaping angle, it can also be seen as pushing Guosheng.

22. Longxing Technology Hebei Coal-to-chemicals. General share structure. Front-runner of coal-to-chemicals. Bonds can be arbitraged.

23. Guangdong Media Guangdong AI marketing. Should be stimulated by football news, but there’s basically no fermentation.

24. Xinan Shares Zhejiang Pesticides Glyphosate Organic silicon Humanoid robot. Tiny share structure.

25. Dashengda Zhejiang Packaging Plans to invest in GPU. Photovoltaic. Share structure is decent. It should have done GPU today.

26. Xinzhonggang Zhejiang Power Electric storage. Excellent share structure. Brings bonds.

27. Ruyi Group Shandong Textiles Cross-border e-commerce Micro-cap shares. General share structure.

28. Shenzhen Huqiang Guangdong Storage chips Huawei Ascend Huawei news stimulation Guides domestic chips.

29. Guosheng Technology Beijing Photovoltaic Silicon energy Lithium batteries Xindoduo concept. Falsheng one-character limit + lithium battery stimulation.

30. Jinniu Chemical Hebei Coal-to-chemicals Methanol Oil and gas price increase stimulation. That’s the走势, but it feels like it’s not living up to the recent oil trend. Right now it looks like an oversold rebound.

31. Luyan Pharmaceutical Fujian Pharmaceutical e-commerce Pharmaceutical distribution. Recently, Fujian drug stocks have been making abnormal moves frequently. For now, it seems driven by Hefei to push Jinyao.

32. Sinong United Shandong Glyphosate It once hit the “three” (three boards), but the ones above didn’t explode the node is wrong.

33. Kangqiang Electronics Zhejiang Storage chips. Tiny share structure. Storage chips previously had recognizability.

34. Wenxian Kinno Guangdong Robotics New energy vehicles Two-wheelers. General share structure.

35. Aerospace Electric Appliances Commercial aerospace Optical modules. Judging by the name it’s commercial aerospace, but actually it’s moving in optical communication.

36. Create Lawn Jiangsu Football. Previously Su Chao old dragon.

37. Shuhua Sports Fujian Sports Football pseudo-di-tian. Today the football actually came out with an expectation gap.

Key stock notes

Tongda Shares: At the start, oil & gas + batteries responded, and power needed to be repaired. Oriental New Energy went limit-up. Datong, which strengthened the trend and achieved an反包, didn’t seem to have much of a problem. Yet it got爆头 by someone, and even near the close auction there was maintenance.

Huilv Ecology: It was originally a trend hold, but Falsheng hit limit-up at the open, and Zhaofei didn’t quickly pull up after the open. Something still feels off. Just pull up the ten-day line defensively first—if it’s truly strong, it won’t break below the ten-day line.

Shanquan Group: At the open, multiple first-board signals in batteries. It’s a “Wodaoban,” so if you want to participate, you should do a top-of-board order cancel (排撤). If you didn’t pay attention to that early in the morning and missed the排撤 timing, then you don’t need to line up for it in the afternoon.

Hongjing Technology: Quant cloud computing leasing has long been a known standout. The rhythm here is: after a big bullish candle (大阳), it keeps adjusting continuously, and then later pulls up with another big bullish candle. So for low-absorption entries, the issue isn’t big; you just wait for it to pull up later. The quant-catalyst news for tokens has been abundant—don’t know if it’s for optical communication, but cloud computing leasing keeps failing to rise.

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