Galaxy Securities A-Share Strategy: Changes in crude oil prices will continue to be a key variable influencing the recent market structure.

Ask AI · How do escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran affect A-share investment logic through oil prices?

A Galaxy Securities outlook for the A-share market says that, from an external environment perspective, the military conflict involving the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, prospects for ceasefire talks remain unclear, Trump has set an April 6 final deadline, and Iran’s retaliatory intensity and scope have expanded. While uncertainty around the conflict remains high and the trend is not yet clear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and A-shares may show characteristics of sideways trading with rotation. Changes in crude oil price movements will still be a key variable affecting the market structure in the near term. Rising oil prices lift global inflation expectations; delayed expectations for rate cuts tighten global liquidity at the margin, which will strengthen the trading logic of the energy substitution theme and the supporting role of defensive sectors. At the same time, it will partially suppress the performance of offensive sectors such as technology growth. If, however, oil prices stabilize and then fall amid expectations of conflict easing, and rate-cut/looser-policy expectations rebound, it would be favorable for a rebound in growth-stock sentiment. From an internal environment perspective, policy support and the core logic of capital entering the market and the revaluation of Chinese assets have not changed, and the external conflict has not shaken the long-term “slow bull” foundation of A-shares. Meanwhile, with April being the period when listed companies’ earnings enter a concentrated disclosure phase, market clues gradually shift toward validation of fundamentals. Sectors with high earnings certainty and sustained improvement in business conditions will become the core direction for capital focus.