Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-07T03:44:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4th (UTC+8): The United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added, well above expectations. Additionally, the February data was revised from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. This report, amid the reduced probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, provided short-term support for the dollar. The Iran war enters its sixth week, and the quick resolution scenario involving Trump is beginning to collapse. The market's more critical test is also approaching: the first CPI report since the outbreak of war is about to be released, and inflation may surge. Some warn that "now is not the time to trade." Here are the key market focus points for the upcoming week (all times Beijing time): - Monday 22:00: US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday 23:00: US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations - Wednesday 00:35: FOMC voting member for 2027, Chicago Fed President

MeNews

2026-04-07 03:44:48

ME News update: On April 4 (UTC+8), the U.S. released its Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, showing that the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initial estimate of a decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of lower probabilities for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick decision” storyline associated with Trump is starting to fall apart. An even more critical test for the market is also coming: the first CPI release after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be published—inflation could run hot. Some have warned that “this is not the time to trade.” Here are the key items that markets will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00—U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00—U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35—FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy for 2027; Thursday 02:00—Federal Reserve publishes minutes of the monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30—U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), U.S. Q4 real GDP (annualized, quarterly rate) final, U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures (quarterly rate) final, U.S. Q4 core PCE price index (annualized, quarterly rate) final, U.S. February core PCE price index (month-over-month); Friday 20:30—U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI (year-over-year) / core CPI (year-over-year), U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month-over-month) / core CPI (month-over-month). Friday 22:00—U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation (initial value), U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (initial value), U.S. February factory orders (month-over-month) (source: PANews)

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