U.S. Stock Preview | The three major stock index futures fluctuate differently; reports suggest the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement may take effect on the 6th; Trump plans to hold a press conference

Source: Zhitong Finance

Pre-market market developments

1. On April 6 (Monday), ahead of the U.S. stock market open, U.S. stock index futures were up and down unevenly. As of the time of publication, Dow Jones index futures were down 0.10%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures were up 0.38%.

2. As of the time of publication, Germany’s DAX index was down 0.56%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index was up 0.69%, France’s CAC 40 index was down 0.24%, and Europe’s STOXX 50 index was down 0.70%.

3. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil was down 1.47%, to $109.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.45%, to $108.54 per barrel.

Market news

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement may take effect on the 6th. According to reports, a source said the United States and Iran have received a draft proposal for the ceasefire agreement, which may take effect on the 6th. The source said Pakistan has drawn up a framework proposal to end the conflict and has communicated with both the U.S. and Iran. The proposal is intended to first achieve an immediate ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and then reach a final agreement within 15 to 20 days. The final agreement may include Iran’s commitment not to seek nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. On April 6, local time, a senior Iranian government official said that Iran has received the latest ceasefire proposal put forward by the mediator, Pakistan, and is currently reviewing the relevant contents. The official said Iran will not accept a set deadline or pressure intended to force it to make a decision. Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for “a temporary ceasefire.” Iran believes the United States is not yet ready to achieve a permanent ceasefire.

U.S. President Trump hinted at once again postponing the timeline for destroying Iran’s energy facilities and plans to hold a news conference. On April 5, President Trump posted on social media, saying, “8:00 p.m. Tuesday (the 7th), Eastern Time.” Some media interpreted this as his latest deadline set for his action to destroy Iran’s energy facilities, pushed back by one day. Earlier that day, he had also posted on social media about a new deadline for this action. In his post, he said, “April 7 will be Iran’s power-plant day and bridge day,” implying a fierce bombing of Iran’s power plants and bridges. On April 5, Iran’s top leader’s foreign affairs adviser, Velayati, warned the United States that if it makes “another mistake,” the Iran-led Resistance Front will take countermeasures by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, on April 5 local time, during an interview, Trump said the United States is currently engaged in “deep negotiations” with Iran and that an agreement could be reached before the last deadline of April 7 set by him. He said that if Iran does not reach an agreement with the United States as soon as possible, he will order to “blow up everything” and “take over oil.” It is worth noting that Trump also said a news conference will be held at 13:00 on April 6 (Monday) in the White House’s Oval Office, together with the military.

Delta Air Lines’ earnings report, along with U.S. inflation data, is coming in dense form. Besides the Middle East situation that has drawn widespread attention, U.S. consumer spending and inflation indicators this week will become the focus of the market. The U.S. February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. As investors try to assess the impact of the Middle East war on the economy, these two inflation data releases will become the first real readings for how increases in commodity prices transmit to U.S. inflation. On Friday, investors will also get market sentiment signals from the University of Michigan’s initial data for April consumer sentiment, current conditions, and expectations. As for company earnings, Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) will release results on Wednesday. This will be a key indicator for how the Iran war and the subsequent surge in airline fuel prices will affect the airline industry—an industry that is highly sensitive to oil-price fluctuations.

Will the “strongest April” for U.S. stocks turn into a mirage? Three major headwinds hit at once, and the rebound path may end in failure. After a tumultuous first quarter, investors had hoped that U.S. stocks could rebound by leveraging April’s traditional “strong month.” However, reality may be harsher than historical patterns, as a ring of negative forces is making the market’s recovery prospects increasingly unclear. Although U.S. stocks saw a brief rebound in early April, and historical data shows April is often the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 index, the current macro environment is no longer the same. Empower Chief Investment Strategist Marta Norton said plainly that the market’s core concern right now has only one thing: “the situation in Iran.” This conflict not only pushes oil prices higher, but also directly threatens the three pillars that support the stock market rebound—slowing inflation, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and solid corporate earnings.

Don’t discuss anything unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened! The “symbolic” production increase by eight oil-producing countries can’t solve the largest crude oil supply disruption in history. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement on the 5th that eight key “OPEC+” oil-producing countries have decided to increase crude oil output by 206k barrels per day on average in May. By then, these eight major oil-producing countries have announced production increases for the second consecutive month. However, in light of the reality of the largest crude oil supply disruption in history, with a gap as high as 11 million barrels per day, and continued disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, this increase can be ignored. With Middle East major oil-producing countries having already lost the ability to add supply to the market due to the fighting in the Middle East, this symbolic production increase can only remain on paper. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, said that as long as navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted, this output-increase decision has “only academic significance.” An OPEC+ source admitted that although the 206k-barrel-per-day increase in this case is less than 2% of the scale of the supply disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it sends a signal that once the channel is reopened, the alliance is prepared to raise output.

Individual stock news

Paramount Global (PSKY.US) is negotiating with the Gulf sovereign wealth fund to inject nearly $24 billion to support the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US). Reports say Paramount Global is in talks with three sovereign wealth funds led by Saudi Arabia, aiming to obtain equity commitments of nearly $24 billion to support its acquisition deal for Warner Bros. Discovery. This U.S. entertainment giant announced in February this year that it had agreed to acquire a peer company with a total deal value of $110 billion (with an equity value of $81 billion), and the transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter. The merger will integrate major studios and TV networks such as CNN and CBS, enabling it to compete more effectively in the market as streaming continues to siphon traditional linear TV viewers. According to sources, to support the acquisition, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has agreed to provide about $10 billion in funding. The report said other funding parties may include Qatar Investment Authority and L‘imad Holding of Abu Dhabi.

United Parcel Service (UPS.US) reached a settlement with the Teamsters truck drivers union, providing 7,500 drivers with $150k in early retirement compensation. UPS said last Sunday that it had reached an agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (Teamsters) to set a cap on the separation-compensation plan offered to 7,500 drivers, in relation to controversies arising from the company’s planned layoffs. Under the agreement, UPS will provide $150k in compensation to drivers who take early retirement. The union previously tried to block the package-delivery giant from implementing a “Driver Select Program,” arguing that the program was launched without bargaining and violated the parties’ 2023 labor agreement. The union argued that the relevant contract provisions generally prohibit UPS from entering into such individual agreements with its drivers.

Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO.US) surged pre-market after being acquired by Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX.US) for $2.9 billion. Neurocrine Biosciences said on Monday it will acquire rare-disease drug company Soleno Therapeutics for $2.9 billion in cash, marking this neuroscience-focused pharmaceutical company’s expansion into metabolic diseases. Neurocrine Biosciences proposed to acquire Soleno Therapeutics shares for $53 per share, representing a premium of about 34% over the stock’s closing price on the previous trading day. The deal gives Neurocrine Biosciences the right to use the drug Vykat XR, the first approved drug in the United States for treating hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi syndrome. Hyperphagia—intense and persistent feelings of hunger—is a typical symptom of Prader-Willi syndrome and can lead to severe obesity and problems in physical, psychological, and behavioral areas. As of the time of publication, Soleno Therapeutics’ pre-market in U.S. trading on Monday was up nearly 34%.

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责任编辑：郭栩彤