I just listened to Fed Chair Powell's speech after the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. Let me say right away — this is not a dovish speech, as many expected. Bitcoin immediately dropped below $110,000 on this news, reaching as low as $109,200, but then buyers stepped in — it's now closer to $111,000.

The most important point he made: further cuts in December are not a certainty. Fed members have different views, and Powell explicitly emphasized that this was more of a risk management move rather than the start of widespread rate cuts. Plus, inflation is still elevated, although the consumer price index came in slightly below expectations.

The labor market situation is interesting — demand has clearly fallen, but layoffs and hiring remain at low levels. No rapid downturn, just a gradual slowdown. Jobless claims are not increasing, and the number of vacancies is decreasing.

Another point from Powell's speech: core PCE inflation rose to 2.8%, and disinflation in services continues. Regarding tariffs, Powell believes their impact on prices will be short-term, but they are monitoring the situation to prevent it from becoming a persistent problem.

The key takeaway is that the risk balance has shifted, and it’s no longer possible to address employment and inflation with a single tool. Reserves will continue to decline, but the final endpoint has not been determined. If the labor market stabilizes or strengthens, it will influence future Fed decisions. In short, things are not as simple as they seemed before this speech.