The US-Iran conflict is causing cracks in NATO; experts analyze the underlying reasons behind Trump's threat to withdraw from NATO.

【The U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, Whitaker, said that U.S. President Trump is reconsidering everything related to NATO, including the question of whether Europe should provide aid to Ukraine. Earlier, Trump said that when he gives a nationwide address, he will mention his hatred for NATO. Chinese military expert Qiu Shiqing, in an interview with the Sputnik news agency, said that the current relationship between the U.S. and NATO is facing a “critical crossroads.” Trump’s dissatisfaction with NATO and the public statements by U.S. officials have both sent a clear signal: the United States is reexamining its role and responsibilities within NATO, and this development may shake the very foundation on which NATO exists.】

He told Sputnik that “against the backdrop of a possible U.S. slide into the Iran war quagmire, in recent times the Trump administration—whether it is the remarks of Whitaker the representative, the Secretary of State Rubio, or even Trump’s own speech in person—has been conveying a clear and carefully considered issue: the relationship between the United States and NATO has reached a critical crossroads. This is not only that Washington is gradually drifting away from NATO in terms of its stance on providing weapons to Ukraine; it is also a direct expression of dissatisfaction with NATO’s attitude of isolating Trump after a conflict between the U.S. and Iran breaks out.”

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Trump said that after NATO refused to help with strikes against Iran, he is seriously considering having the United States withdraw from NATO. He said he has always believed that NATO is a “paper tiger,” and noted that Russian leaders know this as well. Whitaker, in an interview with the Newsmax channel, said: “I think it is now very clear that President Trump is evaluating and reconsidering everything, whether it is our level of participation in NATO, our support for Europe on the Ukraine issue, or any other actions by the United States.”

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said: “If we reach a point like this, where the NATO alliance means we can’t use these bases—meaning we can no longer use them to protect U.S. interests—then NATO is a one-way street. At that time, NATO would mean our troops are stationed in Europe to protect Europe, but when we need help, we don’t get it.”

In response, Qiu Shiqing said: “We have observed that U.S. officials’ statements are becoming increasingly lacking in patience. Especially when it comes to dissatisfaction with NATO, it is no longer limited to the decision-making circle in Washington—when even it spreads to the diplomats responsible for communications, you can tell that a block of ice that is a foot thick is not formed in a single day.”

He pointed out that over the past period, European countries have been trying to persuade Trump that the U.S. must continue supporting Ukraine with enough weapons in order to make progress on a peace agreement. But Trump previously said that Washington will no longer use U.S. funding to provide weapons to Kyiv; instead, it will sell weapons to NATO countries, and then those countries will transfer the weapons to Ukraine.

“Obviously, this approach has not produced significant results in the past few months. Now that the United States needs NATO support for military actions against Iran, NATO countries are refusing with various excuses, which puts the transatlantic relationship between the U.S. and Europe to an unprecedented test. And as the United States loses control of its military actions against Iran, the relationship between the U.S. and NATO will only keep deteriorating.” Qiu Shiqing further analyzed.

Earlier, Trump criticized NATO allies for refusing to support the U.S. in countering Iran and for the action to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—Germany and France refused to support the initiative. Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that EU countries are not prepared to send fleets there.

Spanish newspaper El Mundo, citing multiple NATO sources, reported that amid the growing Middle East conflict and the increasing threats from U.S. President Trump, NATO is experiencing the deepest crisis, and it may not be able to fully “recover” from it. The report also said that after the U.S. issued a statement about Greenland, the conflict in the Middle East broke out, and NATO Secretary General Rutte decided to fully align with Washington, divisions within NATO further intensified. The U.S. newspaper Politico, citing EU officials, said European leaders and officials generally believe that Trump’s increasingly intense attacks on countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain, and France have confirmed that there are fundamental fault lines within NATO.

In response, Qiu Shiqing said: “In reality, NATO cannot afford the consequences of losing the United States. This further leads to the possibility of division within NATO. That is the real crisis for NATO, because once NATO splits, it would mean that the biggest military alliance may no longer exist.”

European officials said that multiple countries have already started taking precautionary measures to deal with the risk that the U.S. could withdraw from NATO, but the parties have not yet reached consensus on how to restore NATO’s public credibility, or—under the worst circumstances—what mechanism would replace NATO.

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