April 6th - Can JinYao continue to stand alone as a monster next week?

Old rulesFirst like, then watch,developa habitofgetting rich**…**

Weekend news mainly still revolves around geopolitical de-escalation, or escalation that keeps shifting back and forth; you can only watch as it unfolds—first, watch whether the April 7 event plant will be targeted…

Other possible directions that could be affected include domestic chips (they’re very sensitive to trading volume—if there’s no clear surge in volume, you can’t really chase at all)…

In terms of fiber optics and defense/aviation, there are also messages—fiber optics is a front-runner setup; it’s harder to participate from the late side…

In the pharma sector, there are relatively fewer pieces of news, but there’s much bigger expectation gap, because the funds are truly flowing into a low-level segment—this pharma sector can’t be treated as a defensive sector; instead, it can be used as a sector that resonates with the index… The disagreement on Friday was because, before the market opened, news about adding “something at the end of the year” was released and caused the disagreement—this is normal, benign disagreement. If there is disagreement, that’s where the expectation gap comes from… The sector’s real logic hasn’t changed…

Tianjin Pharmaceutical—first, my viewpoint might differ from other teachers’ views (the so-called Minervua’s late-session plunge sets the tone that pharma won’t be recognized). I think differently. It’s not because I hold it and therefore blindly look optimistic. Let me share my understanding…

First, actually, when Tianjin Pharmaceutical was at its 3-board and 4-board stages, Minervua had already done it twice—deep-water backstabs. At that time, it was also because it was anchored to Minervua, which affected my plan decision to add to Tianjin Pharmaceutical at the 2-to-3 stage (the repeated strength and multiple forceful closes of the three boards were the add-position point). So my understanding and conclusion is: simply anchoring to the feedback from Minervua to decide whether pharma is “in play” or “out” is somewhat one-sided. You need to anchor to all three—Tianjin Pharmaceutical + Wanbang + Minervua—to determine the pharma sector’s fate with more credibility…

Second, looking at Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s separation from 3 boards and separation from 6 boards—based on these two key points, there’s a possibility later on that it won’t go the pharma-theme-sector route, but instead follows a script of an independent, tightly-held group rally…

As for why Tianjin Pharmaceutical got promoted on Friday, and why at the 2-to-3 board stage there was no one to take it when it broke—my understanding is that this kind of extreme volume compression, where people are still playing super-short relay, are basically the top tier among top-tier; the “mindless” leeks are relatively few. Meanwhile, the homogeneity among such top-tier players is that they generally don’t share consensus about taking mid positions… Also, Tianjin Pharmaceutical hasn’t truly broken through to the “become a妖龙” height yet. Before that, it needs to truly experience a market-wide, sufficiently high-volume turnover-and-handshake test; after passing that test, naturally there will be left and right guard troops moving into the mid-tier lineup…

Third, looking at the chip structure, Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s controller is a small boss + multiple streams of retail “youzi” (seed investors) + market collective strength, and the controller has been locking shares. Minervua’s controllers are institutions + quant funds, with more T+0/T+1 doing-the-trade funds. Wanbang’s controller is quant funds + strong Zhuang (dominant operator), with more arbitrage participants.
Tianjin Pharmaceutical is responsible for leading the emotion to test the high watermark under regulation pressure; because the float is small, later it can rely on market collective strength… Minervua is responsible for trend capacity, and a pullback to the 5/10-day lines is entirely reasonable… Wanbang is similar to Huadian Energy running consecutive bullish K-lines; in the short term it needs to navigate around abnormal-movement rules…

As for the bidding open expectations for Tianjin Pharmaceutical tomorrow… it’s best not to open too high. Personally, I lean toward opening with a divergence first—it’s easier to stay alive—meaning a bidding explosion of 8B+ and a small gap up of +0% to +3%, giving enough value for off-hours relay buyers. Then at the open, it first gets pushed down into a green board or pressed down to the limit-down board; afterwards, it gets taken back via market collective strength into a long upper/lower shadow rebound. In this case, it becomes a divergence-and-turnover “long-legged” rotten board—
Only if you dare to proactively break through 7 boards and break through the “ten-day 100% first level” then it truly counts as the status of becoming the emotion bull leader (情绪龙头)… Before becoming a妖龙 it doesn’t take a theme board role; after becoming a妖龙 it then leads a wave of the行情 by using a few points to drive the theme…

So for Tianjin Pharmaceutical, for people without a先手 (front-run position), tomorrow there is and only one cost-effective gambling point: either following with a high probability at a green board below waterline or limit-down-following with a corner control game on the opening, or around the zero line… The prerequisite is that “Traditional Chinese medicine” (中医) and Wanbang are both giving positive feedback with a red-board sideways stabilization… It’s best to also coordinate with a 20cm “Xinghui” to pull off a reversal back to the upside; then the certainty of a rebound in speculative sentiment should be even higher…

On the other hand, if 中医, Wanbang, Xinghui, and so on are all playing a “catch-up selloff after weakness” (补跌), then Tianjin Pharmaceutical’s difficulty in independently becoming a妖 is relatively large…

All of the above are my personal subjective thoughts; they may not be correct. Everyone should treat them rationally, think independently, and not use them as any basis for making trades…