【US Stock Futures】Pakistan proposes a "two-phase ceasefire plan" Oil prices turn downward

Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran and the United States have received a plan aimed at ending hostilities. The plan could take effect as early as today and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan has drafted a framework agreement to end hostilities and submitted it to Iran and the United States last night. The framework is based on a “two-stage plan”: first, achieve an immediate ceasefire, and then sign a comprehensive agreement. The source said, “All elements must reach an understanding within today.” The source added that the initial understanding will be drafted in the form of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), and finalized through Pakistan; Pakistan is currently the only channel of communication for negotiations between the two sides.

Reuters reports that the anticipated agreement would involve Iran committing to give up developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions and the release of Iran’s overseas assets.

Oil prices fluctuated lower; New York-traded crude oil fell 2%, while Brent crude fell 0.5%.

Iraq reportedly granted approval to transit the Strait of Hormuz

After reports that Iran has waived restrictions for Iraq—allowing it to transit the Strait of Hormuz without any limitations—Reuters reports that the Iraq National Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has asked its customers to submit their crude oil pickup plans within 24 hours.

An Axios report says that mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are making a final push to achieve a 45-day ceasefire among the United States, Israel, and Iran.

A senior Iranian official warned that if the United States escalates its attacks on Iran, global energy routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz could be threatened.

Reuters, citing a SOMO document, said: “In light of the above circumstances, to ensure the continuity and stability of crude oil export business, we urge your company to submit a pickup plan within 24 hours so that your pickup arrangement can be handled in a timely manner, including vessel nominations and contract loading quantities, and in full compliance with the agreed terms and conditions.” Since the war began, Iraq’s oil production has collapsed to about 800k barrels per day.

Strait of Hormuz — Live Shipping Conditions

The document further states: “We hereby reiterate that all loading terminals, including the Basra oil terminal and its related facilities, remain fully operational. SOMO is fully prepared to execute all contractual pickup plans without restrictions.”

Trump posted on social media on Truth Social: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time! (8:00 P.M. Tuesday Evening, ET!)”, implying that it is the deadline for the final notice—8:00 a.m. on Wednesday Hong Kong time.

Democrats say Trump’s latest threats toward Iran are “delusional,” and warn that attacking civilian facilities could constitute war crimes.

It is worth noting that with the war situation in emergency mode, any information could reverse the current market conditions.

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