Suddenly, a collective surge! The "ceasefire agreement" is trending! Major news from the US and Iran!

A major piece of news has come in!

According to CCTV News, citing reports from international media, the mediators are discussing the terms of a “potential ceasefire agreement lasting 45 days” with the United States and Iran.

Spurred by the above news, U.S. stock index futures surged sharply during trading. Nasdaq 100 index futures, S&P 500 index futures, and Dow Jones index futures all briefly turned positive. Earlier, however, Nasdaq 100 index futures fell to nearly 1%, while S&P 500 index futures and Dow Jones index futures both fell to nearly 0.80%. As of 14:52, Nasdaq 100 index futures were up 0.20%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.05%, and Dow Jones index futures were slightly down 0.10%.

Japanese and South Korean equities also saw upward moves during the trading session. South Korea’s KOSPI index was up nearly 2.5% at one point, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was up more than 1.8% at one point. However, afterward, the gains in the above stock markets narrowed somewhat.

“Ceasefire agreement” goes viral

Encouraged by signs that the tense situation in Iran might be brought under control, investors cautiously returned to the stock market. On April 6, during the trading session, both Japan and South Korea’s stock markets posted gains. By the close of trading, the Nikkei 225 index was up 0.55%, and South Korea’s KOSPI index was up 1.36%.

Storage chip concept stocks broadly rose: Samsung Electronics rose 3.71%, Advantest rose 1.74%, and Kioxia rose more than 4%. Analysts said Samsung Electronics benefited from a surge in chip prices driven by the AI boom, and it is expected that year-over-year operating profit for January–March will grow by 6 times, setting a quarterly record.

Gold and silver prices once again plunged during today’s trading. As of 14:52, spot gold fell 0.20% to $4,663 per ounce, and spot silver fell 0.78% to about $72.4 per ounce. Since the conflict broke out at the end of February, the gold price has crashed by more than 12%. The reasons include rising energy prices intensifying inflation concerns and reducing the rate-cut outlook for gold and other precious metals that typically benefit from lower rates without generating yield.

The Axios news site in the U.S. reported that the mediators told Iranian officials that there was no time left to keep playing negotiating strategy, and emphasized that the next 48 hours is their last chance to reach an agreement and prevent the country from suffering large-scale damage. However, in public remarks, Iranian officials still took an extremely hardline stance and refused any concessions. On Sunday, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “will never” return to pre-war conditions, especially for the United States and Israel.

On April 5, U.S. President Trump posted on social media, saying, “8:00 p.m. Tuesday (7) Eastern Time.” Some media interpreted this as his latest deadline for delaying again the action to destroy Iran’s energy facilities. On March 26, Trump had announced that the destruction of Iran’s energy facilities would be delayed by 10 days, with the deadline extended to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6.

Stock market rebound in Japan and South Korea

Encouraged by signs that the tense situation in Iran might be brought under control, investors cautiously returned to the stock market. During the April 6 trading session, both Japan and South Korea’s stock markets saw gains. As of 13:00, the Nikkei 225 index was up more than 1.3%, and South Korea’s KOSPI index was up more than 1%. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was up 0.5%.

Storage chip concept stocks broadly rose: Samsung Electronics rose more than 3%, Advantest rose nearly 3%, and Kioxia rose nearly 2%. Analysts said Samsung Electronics benefited from a surge in chip prices driven by the AI boom, and it is expected that year-over-year operating profit for January–March will grow by 6 times, setting a quarterly record.

Gold and silver prices once again plunged during today’s trading. As of 13:00, spot gold fell 0.67% to about $4,641 per ounce, and spot silver fell 1.50% to about $72 per ounce. Since the conflict broke out at the end of February, the gold price has crashed by more than 12%. The reasons include rising energy prices intensifying inflation concerns and reducing the rate-cut outlook for gold and other precious metals that typically benefit from lower rates without generating yield.

“Asian markets are especially quick to react to any signs that might prevent the worst case scenario—such as a complete interruption of oil supply.” Tareq Halchani, Head of Sales Trading at Maybank Securities’ main brokerage business, said, “That’s why you’ll see a modest rebound, especially in areas like semiconductors and cyclical stocks.”

After the war in Iran dimmed the outlook and triggered inflation concerns, disrupting expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, traders are seizing on any headlines that could affect sentiment. Focus remains on energy prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (the key artery for Middle East oil transport).

Previously, traders were focused on how this week’s Friday release of U.S. monthly inflation data might be affected by the sharp jump in crude oil prices. According to an economist survey conducted ahead of the report’s release, in the U.S., every $1 increase in gasoline prices per gallon could push March’s consumer price index up by 1%. This would be the largest rise since inflation surged after the 2022 pandemic.

Also, according to CCTV News citing five reports from Japan, driven by developments in the Middle East situation, Japan’s crude oil import volume has dropped sharply, raising widespread concerns. The Japanese government is considering releasing additional national oil reserves in May, with the release amount equivalent to about 20 days of Japan’s oil usage.

It is understood that the Japanese government is seeking to transport crude oil via alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and to purchase crude oil from regions outside the Middle East. It is expected that Japan’s crude oil import volume in May will reach about 60% of the same period last year. The shortfall will be partly filled by releasing national oil reserves. This plan is still under discussion at present.

Editors: Zhan Shu Heng

Layout: Wang Lu Lu

Proofreading: Li Lingfeng