How is the gold market in April? A few variables to watch out for

In March, international gold prices fell cumulatively by about 15%; spot gold prices, after peaking at 5600 USD per ounce, at one point dropped below 4100 USD per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices also declined in sync; at some brands, daily price cuts exceeded 40 yuan per gram (for example, Laofengxiang fell from 1456 yuan per gram to 1440 yuan per gram).

Over the past two days, a reporter from the Futures Daily visited gold shops in Zhengzhou’s shopping malls and found that the retail prices of 999 fine gold at major domestic brands are generally still at high levels, and many well-known brands have already surpassed 1400 yuan per gram. Among them, Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Luk Fook Jewellery, and Trendy King’s listed prices are the highest—at 1445 yuan per gram (excluding labor fees). Chow Sang Sang?（No—follow original）Zhoushengsheng comes next, quoting 1441 yuan per gram. Laofengxiang and Lao Miao Gold are slightly lower at 1435 yuan per gram. China Gold’s price is 1382 yuan per gram.

Li, a sales manager at a gold shop in Zhengdong’s Mixc, told the reporter that the recent gold price trend shows intense, “electrocardiogram”-style fluctuations. Influenced by multiple factors such as the rise in international oil prices, inflation expectations, and geopolitical developments, gold prices in the short term may see a pattern of first falling then rising or consolidating after fluctuations. Although the long-term bullish trend has not changed, the elevated gold prices have directly affected consumers’ purchasing decisions; some shops are seeing a phenomenon of “prices going up but no sales.”

“Since March, the amount gold prices rise or fall has been relatively large. I want to buy a bracelet of more than 30 grams again. In March, the highest and lowest prices can differ by more than 6000 yuan. I’m afraid of buying too high, but if I don’t buy, I’m worried it will surge again. As a non-urgent, non-essential consumer, whether to buy now or not has been really纠结.” said Ms. Zhang, a local resident.

在丹尼斯航海路店，柜台销售人员介绍，最近金价涨涨跌跌，总体处于下跌状态，不少金店都热闹起来了，之前一直观望的刚需客也出手购买，前来挑选金饰的人比之前明显增多。

“这两天商场有活动，每克减100元，到手价大概是1320元/克。”郑东万象城的另外一个品牌金店销售人员说。

In the view of industry insiders, in March international gold prices saw a typical cycle of “rapid sell-off from high levels—oversold rebound/repair,” and the trend looked more like a deep re-pricing of an earlier extreme “bull market” rather than a reversal of mid- to long-term logic.

What are the core drivers behind the current gold price trend?

Wu Zijie, a precious metals research analyst at Fortune Rui Futures, told the reporter that the core driver of the current gold price is not an isolated geopolitical event, but rather geopolitical risk changing the market’s pricing of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path through oil prices, inflation expectations, the dollar, and real yields. The special thing about March was that geopolitical conflicts did not simply translate into “safe-haven buying of gold,” but instead pushed up energy prices, strengthened re-inflation pressures, and caused the market for a time to almost no longer price any Federal Reserve rate cuts within the year. As a result, gold faced higher carry costs and stronger suppression from the stronger dollar. In early April, gold prices stabilized again largely because the market believed there was room for the conflict to ease; concerns about oil prices and inflation also eased at the margin, and rate-cut expectations had a basis for recovery. At present, major institutions on Wall Street still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates 1 to 2 times in 2026. However, at the end of March, the funds market had at one point ceased pricing in any expectations of currency loosening. Meanwhile, on April 3, the U.S. reported that March nonfarm payrolls added 178k jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, which also shows that in the short term, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has not been forced into a shift toward easing pressure. Therefore, for the direction of gold prices going forward, two aspects need attention: the persistence of the oil-price shock and U.S. nonfarm employment data.

For the short term (1 to 3 months) gold price trend, Wu Zijie told the reporter that over the next 1 to 3 months, you should watch the 4800 USD per ounce to 5000 USD per ounce range for resistance above. Around 4800 USD per ounce corresponds to a new, densely traded zone formed by the gold price rebound at the beginning of April. Trading has re-emerged here, with both sides engaging in a renewed contest; 5000 USD per ounce is the key round-number level that was previously broken down, and it is also the crucial point for the market to confirm whether the intermediate-term uptrend structure has recovered. If gold can effectively reclaim levels above 5000 USD per ounce, market memories of the prior deep sell-off will clearly weaken, and gold may continue to repair toward the prior high area. Support below can be seen in the 4600 USD per ounce to 4650 USD per ounce range—this is the first pullback confirmation zone formed after the rebound at the end of March. Stronger support is at 4380 USD per ounce to 4400 USD per ounce, corresponding to the low in late March. If this area is breached, it would mean the market has begun re-trading the pressure scenario of “high oil prices—high inflation—high interest rates for longer,” and most likely will test again the support of the 200-day moving average around 4100 USD per ounce. If the Middle East situation eases at the margin, oil prices fall, the dollar weakens, and U.S. real yields decline, gold will most likely repair with an approach that raises the trading center of gravity through consolidation. Otherwise, gold may continue to repeatedly test the lower end of the range.

In the current broader environment, what potential risk points come with allocating to gold?

Wu Zijie said that for ordinary investors, gold can be defined as an insurance asset within a portfolio, a liquidity buffer, and a tail-risk hedge tool, rather than a single bet product aimed at chasing high returns in the short term. In terms of product selection, priority should be given to gold ETFs, accumulating gold, and standardized physical gold bars; try to avoid treating high-leverage futures or over-the-counter derivatives as core allocations. The most critical risk right now is still the dollar regaining strength, U.S. real yields rising, oil prices staying high causing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, and—after crowded long positioning—another round of concentrated profit-taking. For ordinary investors, what truly matters is ensuring that position size, product complexity, and the ability to withstand volatility always stay aligned.

(Source: Futures Daily)