Analyst: The current average cost of all Bitcoin loss positions is only $93,600.

ME News update: On April 6 (UTC+8), crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform saying that the average cost basis of all Bitcoin loss-making lots is currently only $93,600. That means that, under the current loss structure, BTC only needs to rise back to $93k for the average cost basis of the loss-making lots to all break even. Even though there are still many lots trapped above the market, it can be determined that during the two rapid sell-offs at the end of last year and in early this year, a large amount of high-basis trapped lots must have chosen to cut losses and exit—this is what dragged down the overall average cost basis of the unrealized loss lots. This figure’s deviation coefficient versus the current BTC price’s 30-day average is 1.4. And in the past three bear-market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has been at least over 2.0—greater than or equal to 2.0. This indicates that when entering the absolute bottom zone, BTC’s price was only about half—less than half—of the “average cost basis of the loss-making lots.” To meet this condition, this round of BTC would have to drop to $46,800. If it does not drop to that level, then this will be the most special bear market in history, because in terms of “pain severity,” it will be much milder than any prior bear market. (Source: PANews)