4.6 Market Analysis and Specific Trading Strategies

I. Overall Market Judgment

Qingming holiday + Wall Street long weekend, market backlog of 3 days of risk aversion sentiment and geopolitical conflicts are bearish factors. On Monday open, there is likely to be a concentrated release of these emotions. Historical patterns show a higher probability of gap-downs or sharp declines.
BTC and ETH have begun to decline gradually; observe whether the downward trend transmits from smaller to larger timeframes. It could be "the last drop," aiming to shake out panic sellers, with short-term profit-taking levels aligning with potential support zones for bulls.
News: Threats from Trump and Iran suggest the conflict may continue for several weeks, putting risk assets under pressure. However, be alert for sudden "positive news" before the open to boost the market. Therefore, the main approach is to short on rebounds, avoiding chasing after drops.

Overall Conclusion
Monday’s opening is expected to be volatile and biased downward. Best strategy: wait for a rebound to key resistance levels, then take small short positions on the right side with strict stop-loss. Do not try to catch the bottom or hold large positions.

II. BTC (Bitcoin) Market Analysis and Strategy

Key Levels ()

Rebound Shorting Zone around 68,000, stop-loss | above 69k | If price stabilizes above 69k, the bearish logic invalidates. Suggested stop-loss at 69,200-69,500 |
| Take-profit Target 1 | 65,500 | First partial profit-taking 1 |
| Take-profit Target 2 | 62,500 | First partial profit-taking 2 |
| Take-profit Target 3 | 60,000 | First partial profit-taking 3 (also strong support for bulls) |

Trading Strategy (to be executed at Monday’s open)
1. Opening Observation: Do not rush to enter. Watch the first 30-60 minutes. If there is a direct gap-down with a sharp decline, avoid shorting; if a rebound occurs to the 67,500-68,000 area, prepare to act.
2. Entry Conditions: Price rebounds to around 68,000 ± 200 USD, and a 15-minute or 1-hour candle shows upper shadow or signs of stagnation (e.g., pin bar, engulfing pattern), then open a small short position.
3. Stop-Loss Setup: Above 69,000 USD (recommended at 69,200). Acceptable stop-loss range is about 1.8%.
4. Position Management: Keep total risk exposure at 2-3%, and take profits in batches.
- First target at 65,500, reduce 1/3 of position, move stop-loss to break even.
- Second target at 62,500, reduce another 1/3.
- Remaining position around 60,000, while observing if the decline transmits to larger timeframes.
5. Caution: If Monday’s open drops directly below 65,000 with no rebound, abandon the short (as the decline may be overextended), and wait for the next rebound opportunity.

III. ETH (Ethereum) Strategy

Key Levels
| Rebound Shorting Zone | around 2,050 - 2,100 | | Stop-Loss | above 2,100 | If price stabilizes above 2,100, short-term bearish logic invalidates. Suggested stop-loss at 2,120 |
| Take-profit Target 1 | 1,935 | First partial profit-taking 1 |
| Take-profit Target 2 | 1,850 | First partial profit-taking 2 |
| Take-profit Target 3 | 1,750 | First partial profit-taking 3 (support for bulls) |

5. Coordination Tip: If BTC drops below 65,500 and ETH drops below 1,930, consider partially taking profits early to prevent overextended rebounds.

Market Opening Discipline: Do not be impatient. Wait for a rebound, confirm on the right side before shorting. If there is a sharp decline at open, abandon the trade and wait for the next rebound. Wishing everyone a stable and confident trading day on Monday! If there are unexpected developments during the session, adjustments can be made accordingly. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战