I just realized that many of you still don't fully understand token unlocks and their impact on coin prices. Today, I will share what I've learned from monitoring token unlock events.

Simply put, token unlock is when tokens that are (vested) are released into the market according to a schedule. These tokens can belong to the project team, early investors, advisors, or the community. Initially, projects lock tokens to control supply and prevent whales from dumping immediately.

In reality, token unlocks have a significant influence on price. When a large amount of tokens are unlocked at once, early holders may take profits, creating enormous selling pressure. Without enough buying support, the price can plummet. Market psychology also plays a big role—investors often sell before the unlock happens out of fear of being dumped on.

There are three main factors that determine the level of impact: first, the amount of tokens unlocked relative to the circulating supply; second, investor sentiment; third, the recipients of the tokens. If most tokens go to the team or early investors, the risk of selling pressure is high. Conversely, if they are allocated to the community, reactions tend to be more positive.

Let me give a real example. Recently, TRUMP coin had a major unlock event. The price hovered around $7-8 with a trading volume of about $736 million. The unlock involved over 40 million tokens, about 20% of the circulating supply, raising concerns about selling pressure. But afterward, the price recovered strongly, possibly due to positive news. Currently, TRUMP is at around $2.85, lower than at that time.

Another case is (Aptos). I noticed that Aptos’s three unlocks followed a similar pattern: a few days before unlocking, the price hits a local bottom, then gradually rises, reaching a peak right at the unlock. However, the third unlock was interrupted by a sharp Bitcoin decline. Currently, APT is at $0.84.

To avoid surprises, you need to monitor upcoming unlock schedules. Some reliable tools include: Tokenomist, which provides detailed unlock schedules weekly or monthly; DeFiLlama, which aggregates projects with upcoming vesting events; and you should also follow official announcements from the project on X, Discord, or Medium.

But don’t assume that all token unlocks are bearish signals. I recommend analyzing more carefully: who will receive the tokens, whether they have an incentive to sell, and if there is any accompanying news. Combining unlock schedule tracking with technical analysis and market news is the smart way. Don’t rely solely on token unlocks to make trading decisions. Wishing you success, especially those who use unlock events for trading.