Next Week's BTC-ETH Trading Strategy

BTC: $66,924 | 7-day +0.19%
Overall assessment: Cautious within consolidation range, wait for clearer direction before acting

Technically, the daily, 4H, and 15-minute charts all show a bearish alignment, but simultaneously, there is a double MACD bullish divergence on both the daily and 15-minute charts—that is, prices are making new lows while selling momentum is waning. This is a classic "stuck in a downtrend" signal. The daily SAR remains below the candlesticks, indicating support is still intact.

Focus on two key levels:

Support: $66,610 (recent low). If broken, watch for a move toward the $59,000 zone (200-week moving average)
Resistance: $69,000–$70k (around the daily MA30). Only a confirmed breakout signals a trend reversal
Pay close attention to capital flows—on April 3, over $2 billion in large on-chain transfers flowed into exchanges, possibly indicating institutional position adjustments; the direction remains to be confirmed.

Saylor publicly announced "the four-year cycle is dead, BTC is driven by capital flows," and Metaplanet increased holdings to become the third-largest corporate holder globally. Charles Schwab announced plans to enable direct BTC trading in the first half of the year—these are structural long-term positives, but they do not change the short-term technical weakness.

Trading suggestions:

Existing positions: Hold for now, with $66,000 as a key stop-loss level
Looking to buy: Gradually accumulate on dips, avoid chasing highs, and add more when volume increases
Be cautious with shorts: Bullish divergence has formed, and bearish momentum is waning, so short positions carry higher risk
ETH: $2,040 | 7-day +0.66%
Overall assessment: Weaker than BTC but showing a bottoming pattern; risk outweighs reward

ETH has broken below the MA20, indicating short-term weakness. The 4H CCI has entered oversold territory, and volume is increasing on the downside—these signals together suggest active deleveraging rather than normal consolidation. The 90-day decline approaches 38%, with significantly more pressure than BTC.

Sentiment is mixed: 43% positive, 46% negative, and the community remains cautious about ETH.

However, there are two contrarian signals:

The Ethereum Foundation has historically shifted from a seller to a staker, with nearly 70,000 ETH staked, worth over $100 million—this is a significant change, indicating the foundation is no longer a potential selling pressure.
Institutional activity is mixed: Fidelity bought about $140 million worth, while BlackRock sold approximately $285 million, resulting in a net outflow overall.
Key levels:

Support: $2,028 (recent low/daily SAR)
Resistance: $2,090 (MA30). Breakouts before this level tend to be weak and volatile
Trading suggestions:

Existing positions: Consider reducing to lighter holdings, and re-enter after ETH/BTC stabilizes and shows signs of rebound
Looking to buy: Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for $2,028 to hold and for bullish signals (4H green candle + decreasing volume) before entering
Short-term opportunity: The 4H oversold zone offers a rebound window, but avoid heavy positions; target $2,080–$2,100
Common trading discipline

Next week’s macro environment remains uncertain (geopolitics, inflation data, CLARITY Act developments). Both assets are suitable for light, phased positions—position management is more important than trying to pick a direction.