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Why does Web3 always talk about eliminating unfairness, but the first thing to be redesigned is actually "lotteries"?
Recently, I’ve been looking at @watchdotfun. Honestly, it’s not just an information tool as many people think, but a project that fully productizes the concept of lotteries. You spend a few dozen dollars to buy a ticket and participate in the draw for high-value items like Rolex watches. The entire process is guaranteed to be verifiably fair through on-chain mechanisms.
On the surface, this seems like an upgrade in trust, but essentially, it’s doing something else: moving the offline probability game onto the blockchain and using technology to make it appear more transparent and reasonable.
The key here isn’t the lottery itself, but user psychology. In the past, you wouldn’t spend thousands of dollars on a watch, but you might be willing to spend the cost of a meal to try your luck.
The question then becomes, when everything becomes more transparent and accessible, is this an improvement in consumer experience or an amplification of a higher-frequency probability behavior?
Many people see it as a lightweight entertainment product, but I tend to view it as an extreme form of attention economy. Users aren’t here to buy things; they’re here to participate in a carefully designed probability system.
If this model works out, it could grow more easily than many so-called applications. But the discussions it sparks probably won’t be few.