TrendForce Jibang Consulting: It is expected that global laptop shipments will decline by 9.2% in 2026. Apple (AAPL.US) is launching low-cost laptops to fill the price gap against the trend.

According to TrendForce, the latest forecast from TrendForce, global shipments of laptop computers in 2026 are expected to decline 9.2% year over year. If demand remains weak, the drop could widen. However, against a backdrop in which the global laptop industry is facing shortages and price hikes for both memory and CPUs, while most brands choose to reduce product output and conservatively manage inventory, Apple (AAPL.US) takes the opposite approach by launching a new entry-level laptop, the MacBook Neo. Its suggested retail price starts at $599, targeting the education market and the mainstream office/document application device lineup in the $500–800 price band, demonstrating its clear ambition for product strategy and an ecosystem buildout.

With three advantages—its product price band extending downward, a pricing strategy that actively moves into action, and tighter control over the supply chain—TrendForce expects that Apple’s laptop shipments in 2026 will grow year over year by 7.7% despite the broader market headwinds, lifting macOS market share to 13.2%. The MacBook Neo’s production volume could reach 4 million to 5 million units, with the exact scale depending on consumers’ acceptance of an 8GB memory configuration. If the MacBook Neo successfully opens up the entry-level market, it will not only help offset the risk of an overall industry downturn, but may also reshape the global laptop market’s pricing and market-share structure.

TrendForce analyzes that Apple can withstand cost pressure and launch a low-priced new device largely due to its control over the supply chain. First, its in-house Apple Silicon chips reduce reliance on external CPU suppliers, adding flexibility in capacity planning and cost negotiation leverage. Second, Apple’s product specifications are highly standardized, with a limited number of configurations, and memory capacities and module setups are concentrated—helping to amplify procurement volume and strengthen long-term contract negotiation power. By contrast, in the Windows camp, brands have more fragmented product lines; memory and processor specifications are more diverse, making it more difficult to control inventory and cost risks during periods of price volatility.

Apple has long focused on the mid-to-high-end laptop market, with its price band concentrated at $999 and above. The launch of the MacBook Neo symbolizes its official move to expand the product pyramid downward. By entering the entry-level segment, Apple can not only fill the gap in the lower price bands, but also build stronger brand stickiness earlier among students and new professionals. The expectation is that the new product will help not only with hardware sales, but—most importantly—with expanding the installed base for macOS ecosystem users, further driving growth in software and services revenue such as the App Store, iCloud, and Apple Music, strengthening its long-term services monetization strategy.

The MacBook Neo’s starting price is clearly lower than the pricing level of previous MacBook series models, and it directly targets mainstream price-point models in the Windows lineup. When competitors are forced to raise prices due to rising costs, Apple chooses to lower gross margins in exchange for market share and user numbers. This low-price new-device strategy is expected to attract price-sensitive consumers and could even gain an advantage in education tender bid markets.