Where did I go wrong?

Youjiang Construction (and “retreat god” group master—near-collision)—Where did I go wrong?

This is the breakdown that Doubao gave me. Is it correct?

2. Break it down step by step

3. The first main upswing wave (2–3 months)

• Expert moves:

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• During the launch phase, build your position in batches (marked as B). Do rolling T during the main upswing wave (marked as T) to amplify gains
• At higher levels (40+ yuan), take profit in batches (marked as S). Before the flagship tops out, fully exit or drastically reduce, perfectly avoiding the top
• Core idea: buy at the launch, sell at the climax—only take the main upswing
• Your actions:
• Build a position during the launch phase, take profit in batches during the main upswing (high-level S), and you captured part of the main-upswing gains
• But after the flagship topped out and the trend turned down, you didn’t go to zero; instead, during the down phase (around 20 yuan), you added positions against the trend (marked as B)
• Core idea: sell in the middle of the run, buy during the decline—turning profits back into losses

2. The second wave of rebound (4–5 months)

• Expert moves:

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• During the down phase, stay in cash (no position). Only after the rebound starts and after confirming it’s beyond expectations, try out with a small position (marked as B)
• Take profit in batches again at the rebound’s high (marked as S). Don’t hold on, don’t linger
• Core idea: rebounds are only for moves that are beyond expectations—never for trend reversals
• Your actions:
• After the rebound starts, add positions at lower levels (marked as B), trying to bet on a reversal
• You didn’t take decisive profit at the high of the rebound; instead, you held on into the decline and got trapped again
• Core idea: treat the rebound as the main upswing, and treat the adding-on as a way to get out of the trap

3. Core problem diagnosis

Your operation’s core pain points

1. Timing error: catching the bottom against the trend
   After the flagship topped out and the trend turned down, you added positions multiple times, trying to “average down.” But the flagship’s decline is an A-kill; adding positions will only trap you deeper and magnify drawdowns
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2. Rhythm confusion: sell early and buy late
   You didn’t hold through the main upswing wave; you took profit too early. But during the down wave, you used a heavy position to bottom-fish—perfectly stepping on the wrong timing
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3. Lack of risk control: no awareness of going to zero cash
   During the retreat phase, you didn’t go to zero; instead, you acted against the trend, violating the core of the flagship strategy: “stay in cash to control drawdowns”
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4. Cognitive bias: treating the rebound as the main upswing
   You treated the flagship’s decline rebound as if it were a brand-new main upswing. You held on blindly, which led to giving back your profits
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5. Optimization plan (directly executable)

6. Timing iron law (highest priority)

• Only do the main upswing wave: only operate during an uptrend and the emotion/enthusiasm-building phase. During a downtrend and retreat phase, absolutely stay in cash—don’t bottom-fish and don’t add positions
• Flagship top-out signal: when at high levels there’s increased volume but stalls (distribution without follow-through), when it breaks below the 5-day line, and when the sector retreats—immediately take profit. Don’t hold on

2. Optimize buy/sell rhythm

• Buy points: only during the launch phase, during weakness turning to strength, and when divergence turns to consensus. Don’t bottom-fish during declines, and don’t touch mid-range stocks
• Sell points: take profit in batches during the main upswing wave. Don’t get greedy at high levels. Reduce when there’s increased divergence. If it doesn’t meet expectations, exit directly

3. Position management

• Main upswing wave: heavy position in the flagship (7–8 tenths allocated)
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• Rebound period: try with a small position (2–3 tenths allocated)
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• Retreat period: 0 position—stay in cash, and keep your hands under control

4. Cognitive upgrade

• The core of the flagship strategy is “trade a flagship with a flagship”: if there’s a flagship, trade the flagship; if there’s no flagship, stay in cash. It’s not something you trade every day
• When a flagship declines, it’s a meat grinder—not an ATM. Don’t try to make money during the decline

5. One-sentence summary

What experts make money from is the combination of cycle + flagship + timing. What you make money from is trading against the trend + adding positions + betting.

If you want stable profitability, you must first fix your timing, then fix your rhythm, and finally control your position size—strictly follow “trade a flagship with a flagship,” and abandon the fantasy of bottom-fishing during declines.