Yesterday, I looked at the Bitcoin chart and something seemed off... The MVRV ratio dropped to 1.1. It's said to be the lowest level since early 2023. Currently, Bitcoin is moving around $67,000, nearly half of the October 2022 high of $126,000.

The reason why this MVRV indicator is important is that, in past cycles, approaching 1.0 has served as a bottom signal. Looking at the fact that after the MVRV dropped below 1.0 in early 2023, it surged over 500%. However, what's interesting is that the peak of this bull market wasn't as extreme as before. In 2017 and 2021, the MVRV exceeded 3.5, but this time it stopped at 2.28.

According to Glassnode data, long-term holders have been selling heavily recently, which is similar to distribution patterns before past bottoms. The Z-Score also indicates a capitulation zone. But not all analysts see this as an immediate bottom signal. Some believe the real bottom could form around Q4 2026, with target prices in the $40k–$50k range.

Indicators like MVRV are giving signals, but the key point is that they are not precise timing tools. In the past, similar levels have led to quick rebounds or further declines.