Analysis: Non-farm data still shows significant volatility, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T19:29:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 3 (UTC+8), Zachary Griffiths, head of the Investment Grade Credit Department at Creditsights, stated: "Data still has further downward revisions, with February revised down by 133k. This indicates significant volatility and frequent adjustments in the data, which are often revised again during annual reviews. Therefore, it is difficult to derive clear signals from the net data over the past few months. As for the Federal Reserve's policy based on this data, any policy adjustments currently have very high thresholds. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially given that we see employment data significantly exceeding expectations, far above the Fed's discussion of the breakeven level associated with the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for rate hikes is higher than for rate cuts, but policy may remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today's report undoubtedly reinforces this view. (Jin10

MeNews

2026-04-04 19:29:48

ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8), Creditsights investment-grade credit desk head Zachary Griffiths said: the data still has further downside revisions; in February, it was reduced by 133k. This shows that the data has obvious volatility and frequent revisions. Usually, it will be revised again during the annual review. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain a clear signal from the net data over the past few months. As for the Fed’s policy based on these data, currently the threshold for any policy adjustment is very high. I think they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially in the situation where we have seen employment data come in far above expectations. This is far above the Fed’s discussion of the break-even profit/loss level corresponding to the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for a rate hike is higher than that for a rate cut, but policy may remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today’s report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10 (Source: ODAILY)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes