Chief economists of the five major financial institutions discuss economic trends: Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%.

By our correspondent Meng Ke, Han Yu

2026 is the opening year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period. Since this year began, various regions and departments in China have earnestly implemented more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, focusing on bringing into play the integrated effects of both existing-policy and incremental-policy measures. Economic performance has started strong, and the outlook for the opening phase is good.

Five chief economists interviewed by our reporter at the Securities Daily generally believe that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach around 5%, and that China’s economy will deliver a “strong start”; macroeconomic policy will stay tightly aligned with the annual targets and tasks, with more proactive and effective, and more coordinated and precise efforts.

“Our economy is showing a trend of a ‘strong start and good opening.’ Major economic indicators have generally improved.” Mingming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said in an interview with the reporter at the Securities Daily. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of the value added of industries above designated size was 6.3%; fixed-asset investment turned from decline to growth. Among that, infrastructure investment posted a high year-on-year increase of 11.4%, reflecting a sustained favorable trend in investment. Overall, the first quarter is expected to achieve growth close to 5%.

“Forecast: In the first quarter of 2026, GDP will grow 4.9%.” Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Cindaijin Holding and deputy director of the Cinda Research Institute, told the reporter that the economy got off to a strong start at the beginning of the year, showing the features of “strong production, strong exports, rising investment, and steady consumption.” Driven together by the cumulative effects of “stabilizing growth” policies and structural growth in external demand, the first quarter is expected to deliver a “strong start.”

“Benefiting from consumption during the Spring Festival in the first quarter, market demand increased; the CPI saw a phased rise. Consumption growth was boosted in parallel. Overall, the national economy is operating steadily, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to be around 5%.” Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open-Source Fund, said.

Chen Li, assistant to the president of Sichuan Cai Securities, chief economist, and director of its research institute, said that in the first quarter, China’s macro economy got off to a strong start with a good opening. Key indicators stabilized, the structure continued to improve, and market expectations improved as well. Industrial production accelerated its recovery. The momentum in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remained strong. The consumption market maintained steady growth. The price level rose moderately. Employment and people’s livelihoods were well protected. New quality productive forces accelerated in their cultivation and growth. Overall, economic operations showed a good trend of making progress while staying stable, and improving in the process of moving forward—laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target.

The 2026 Government Work Report proposes that “this year’s main expected development goals are: economic growth of 4.5%–5%, and in practical work we will strive for even better results.” It also clearly states to “implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, and enhance the foresight, targeting, and coordination of policy.”

Chen Li expects that macroeconomic policies will always stay closely aligned with the annual goals and tasks, with more proactive and effective, and more coordinated and precise efforts. Fiscal policy will step up efforts to improve effectiveness, speed up the rollout and results of long-term special treasury bonds and policy-based financial tools, expand effective investment, and promote consumption growth. It will uphold a moderately accommodative monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and prices, keep liquidity reasonably abundant, and reduce overall financing costs. At the same time, it will strengthen coordination and connection among policies related to industries, science and technology, employment, regions, and so on. It will focus on expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms, preventing risks, and improving expectations, work to remove bottlenecks in the economic cycle, promote overlapping effects of existing-policy and incremental-policy measures to generate greater combined benefits, and do everything possible to consolidate the favorable foundation for economic growth and strive to achieve even better development outcomes.

Mingming said that on the fiscal side, efforts will be made to speed up the implementation progress of special-purpose bonds and increase the proportion used for project construction. Major projects under the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” will also be built earlier. In boosting domestic demand, efforts will be made to accelerate the implementation of plans to increase income for urban and rural residents, as well as special funding to promote domestic demand through coordination between fiscal and financial policies. On the monetary policy side, it will maintain a moderately accommodative stance, appropriately cut reserve requirement ratios and interest rates when necessary, release liquidity support. In addition, it will also use structural monetary policy tools to focus on promoting development in areas such as domestic demand and science and technology.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said it is expected that this year fiscal expenditures will continue to maintain a fairly large scale, and that structural monetary policy tools will continue to be optimized and innovated, with efforts to expand domestic demand becoming significantly stronger.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            GDP
                                                            Economy