Analysis: Bitcoin demand is contracting internally, with multiple indicators showing that both retail and large investors are clearly offloading.

Odaily Planet Daily News: A CryptoQuant analysis report shows that in the first three months of 2026, internal demand in the Bitcoin market is visibly contracting. Total net demand over the past 30 days is -63,000 BTC. Even if institutional buying accelerates (ETF around 50,000 BTC, Strategy around 44,000 BTC), the market is still seeing retail traders, old whales, miners, and others sell around 157,000 BTC.

Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have shifted from being the market’s biggest buyers to being the market’s biggest sellers; over the past year, they have distributed about 188,000 BTC in total. Medium holders (100–1,000 BTC) are still buying, but their pace has declined by more than 60% since October 2025. The Bitcoin spot price stays at $67,000–$68,000; compared with the weighted average cost of $54,286, it still carries about a 21% premium, indicating that most holders remain in profit and the market has not yet bottomed out.

Market sentiment and capital flows appear to be decoupling: the Fear & Greed Index is in an extreme fear range (8–14), but ETF net inflows in March exceeded $1 billion. The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative, reflecting that U.S. institutional participation is still limited. Geopolitical volatility (the Iran conflict) causes prices to swing repeatedly; market strategy is leaning toward a wait-and-see approach, with overall demand slowly fading rather than panic selling.

Although Bitcoin has fallen about 47% from its historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, far below the 85%+ crashes of 2013 and 2017, Zack Wainwright points out that this reflects Bitcoin’s market gradually maturing, with the magnitude of volatility steadily compressing.

Potential catalysts include: Morgan Stanley’s approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, which will provide an entry point for the $6.2 trillion in assets managed by 16,000 financial advisers, as well as continued buying of 44,000 BTC per month under Strategy’s STRC preferred stock product, which could provide the market with a steadier stream of bids. In the short term, technical indicators suggest that if the Iran conflict eases, Bitcoin could rebound to $71,500–$81,200.

Based on the combined relevant indicators, CryptoQuant’s conclusion is: internal demand in the Bitcoin market is contracting; current price support depends on ongoing absorption of selling pressure from retail traders and large holders through institutional ETFs, Strategy, and new channels. (CoinDesk)