Analysis: Non-farm data still shows significant volatility, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T09:43:22+00:00

Creditsights' Zachary Griffiths pointed out that the data is highly volatile and frequently revised, making it difficult to obtain clear policy signals from recent net data. The Federal Reserve may remain on the sidelines with high thresholds, and future rate hikes will be challenging while the likelihood of rate cuts remains low.

MeNews

2026-04-04 09:43:22

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ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8). Creditsights investment-grade credit desk head Zachary Griffiths said: the data still has further downward revisions; February was revised down by 133,000. This shows that the data has significant volatility and frequent revisions; typically, it will be revised again during the annual review. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain a clear signal from the net data over the past few months. As for the Federal Reserve’s policy based on these data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is very high at present. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially given that we are seeing employment data come in far above expectations—well above the break-even level the Federal Reserve discussed in relation to the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for a rate hike is higher than for a rate cut, but policy may remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today’s report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10 (Source: ODAILY))

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