Pork sells at "ginger and garlic prices" — industry chain hopes for a breakthrough — how can pork prices break out of the "pig cycle?

“Pork sold at ‘ginger-and-garlic prices’” “Every pig sold means a loss”… Recently, domestic pork prices in China have kept falling, drawing widespread market attention.

As a core category tied to people’s livelihood, and the stable performance of the agricultural economy, pork price fluctuations ripple through the industry chain from upstream to downstream.

Why is pork pricing continuing to bottom out? How should all parties respond? And how can the hog market escape the cyclical trap of “big rises and big falls” and achieve healthy development? Reporters from Economic Information Daily recently conducted on-the-ground investigations in major hog-producing areas including Shandong, Henan, and Hunan.

On-the-ground trend coverage: Pork prices keep “bottoming out”

“Belly pork is 7 yuan per jin, pure lean meat is 6.5 yuan per jin.” On the morning of March 28, at the Xinfadi Wholesale Market in Beijing, a vendor was calling out to drum up business: “After the Spring Festival, pork prices have continued to fall. Now these prices are cheaper than many vegetables—lower even than the prices of ginger and garlic.”

During recent multi-location research, the reporter learned that hog prices have continued to “bottom out,” already hitting the lowest level in recent years.

In Hunan Province’s Yiyang City, at Ruihui Industry Co., Ltd., vehicles transporting live hogs to the slaughterhouse enter and leave in an orderly manner, but on the face of the company’s person in charge, Huang Dan, worries are hard to hide: “You can sell them now, but you can’t sell at a good price. Since July 2025, the selling price at over 7 yuan per jin has kept sliding, and now it’s only over 5 yuan.”

According to monitoring at 23 county-level wholesale markets and collection points in Hunan Province, after March began, pork prices started to fall faster. The current average hog price across the province is 10.78 yuan per kilogram, down 6.83% month over month and down 29.54% year over year, the lowest price since 2019.

The latest monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in the third week of March, pork prices for hogs in all 30 monitored provinces across the country fell. The average hog price was 11.05 yuan per kilogram, down 28% year over year. This price is the lowest since June 2018.

A symposium with hog-raising enterprises organized recently by relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pointed out that due to factors such as a decline in consumption demand after the holidays, hog prices have fallen and have entered the category of an “overly rapid decline” warning range.

On one hand, consumers enjoy the benefit of low-priced pork at vegetable markets. On the other hand, many breeders face the helpless risk of losses. “For every pig you sell, you’re losing money. You don’t want to leave, but you can’t keep going either.” This is the most common sentiment the reporter heard during the investigation.

A hog breeder in a certain county in Henan, Ge Shenglu, has been in hog farming for many years, but now he is stuck in a dilemma. “The current price of live pigs is between 4.7 yuan and 6 yuan per jin. Even without counting labor costs, raising a pig means a loss of more than 300 yuan.” He said. “The traditional pig cycle is generally 5 years, but in recent years the cycle pattern has become increasingly blurred—‘I don’t know when the low point will be over.’”

Large-scale breeding cooperatives are also under pressure. In Dezhou City, Shandong Province, at the Pingyuan County Kangkangbao Ecological Livestock and Poultry Breeding Professional Cooperative, Liang Xiaoliang said that in February they shipped 1,600 hogs at a price of 12.8 yuan per kilogram, but now the market price is only 10.5 yuan per kilogram, which cannot even break even.

The reporter’s research in Shandong shows that when calculated based on a 120-kilogram body weight, in hog breeding, the break-even cost line for self-bred, self-raised operations is 13.39 yuan per kilogram; for buying piglets for fattening, the break-even cost line is 13.95 yuan per kilogram.

The pressure from pork prices falling is also transmitted along the industry chain to the slaughter and processing end. Wang Bowen, general manager of Shaoshang City Sanwang Industrial Co., Ltd., told the reporter: “Our slaughter volume and meat sales both decreased by 20% year over year. In the slaughtering business, our daily slaughter volume used to be more than 1,400 hogs, but now it’s about 1,100. In meat processing, some large customers—such as pre-made dishes and large meat processing companies—they anticipate that prices may continue to fall later on, so their procurement enthusiasm isn’t high.”

Worth noting is that affected by the situation in the Middle East, feed prices have already started rising, and breeding profits are being squeezed further.

Zhong Changyin, general manager of Henan Zhengyang County Guangming Pig Industry Co., Ltd., calculated the numbers for the reporter: “Recently, rising oil prices and energy prices have increased freight costs. Soybean meal prices have risen to more than 3,000 yuan per ton, which has pushed up pig feed costs. At the moment, each hog is losing about 200 to 300 yuan. If you take last year’s breeding scale of 6,000 hogs, this year could mean a loss of 2 million yuan.”

Core underlying causes: Structural issues behind supply-demand imbalance

Why are pork prices continuing to fall? Many interviewees believe this round of price declines is a normal phenomenon of the hog market undergoing a periodic adjustment, and the core contradiction is the overlap of excess supply and weakened demand.

Looking at the hog market price trend over the past 5 years, the market has experienced two small cycles. The impact of hog diseases on the market gradually weakened. Changes in production capacity driven by profit motivations caused fluctuations in hog prices, the magnitude of fluctuations narrowed step by step, and prices have remained in a trend of oscillating downward movement. Because capacity has been released, the current breeding scale across the industry is at a historical high.

After the Spring Festival, many large pig farms and smallholders expanded capacity, leading to a continuous increase in hog supply.

Ning Ya bing, manager of the market department at the Henan Wanbang International Agricultural Products Logistics City, analyzed that judging from the shipment timing (outgoing/fattening-to-market schedule), due to the February Spring Festival holiday, many breeding entities’ completion rate of their planned shipments was insufficient. Some hog sources that were not shipped are carried over and concentrated for sale in March. Industry monitoring data show that in February, the completion rate of hog shipment plans among domestic sample breeding enterprises was less than 94%. In March, the completion rate among domestic sample breeding enterprises increased by 22.54% month over month. The staged increase in supply further expanded market supply pressure.

While the supply side has continued operating at a high level, the demand side’s support has been insufficient. The reporter learned from the Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry Station that after the Spring Festival, slaughter enterprises’ procurement willingness is generally low and stays at a relatively low level overall; at the terminal level, white-cut meat sales have moved slowly, the rate of fresh sales has declined, slaughter enterprises produce based on sales, and their support for hog prices has weakened.

“Hog meat procurement and sales are currently in the traditional off-season for consumption. Fresh products are selling sluggishly, demand patterns change after the holidays, and substitution consumption increases. Overall consumption is at a low point. The hog market is in the ‘grinding out the bottom’ stage of this cycle, with prices maintaining low-level fluctuations.” Liu Tong, an analyst at the Hunan Provincial Animal Husbandry and Fisheries Affairs Center, said.

A deeper change lies in the long-term adjustment of the consumption structure. Data show that China’s share of pork in meat consumption has fallen from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.8% in 2025, meaning overall demand for pork consumption is decreasing.

Supply-demand imbalance is “the surface,” and structural issues are “the underlying substance.”

“The fundamental reason for this round of price declines is still excess capacity.” Wu Maisheng, vice chairman of the National Hog Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance, said. Since September of last year, relevant departments have held talks with leading companies across the country and required reducing the capacity of sows for breeding and prohibiting secondary fattening. But because large enterprises and group companies have higher production capacity and also face high fixed investment and operating costs, reducing capacity involves certain pressure.

Path to breaking the cycle: Balance both short- and long-term goals to promote healthy industry development

Facing falling hog prices caused by supply-demand mismatch, policy authorities are releasing strong “stabilizing” signals.

At a symposium with hog-raising enterprises organized by relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the authorities required that all hog-raising enterprises must strictly implement capacity regulation measures, scientifically arrange production and operations, reduce the number of breeding sows in an orderly manner, reasonably control the number of hogs shipped for market, and help match supply and demand more effectively.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance and other departments, launched the first round of centralized government hog frozen reserve purchases and storage for 2026. The total volume will reach 10,000 tons. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed lowering the target for the number of breeding sows in inventory to around 36.5 million and requiring enterprises to reduce their annual shipment numbers.

Regarding the future trend of pork prices, industry generally believes that official reserve purchases and storage will stabilize market sentiment to some extent. It is expected that in the short term, the downward room for hog prices is limited, or prices will mainly grind out the bottom through fluctuations. However, due to the influence of strong supply and weak demand, risks still need to be watched: price increases may fall short of expectations, and there may be staged pullbacks. The market still needs to gradually achieve stabilization and a rebound in prices through a balance of supply and demand.

During capacity adjustments, how can we balance short-term stability with long-term development?

For the vast number of small and medium-sized breeders, scientific self-rescue and rational response are key.

“As pork prices are low right now, small and medium-sized breeders are being hit hard. Some breeders have eliminated all breeding sows and switched to other operations. We advise breeders to reasonably arrange their breeding plans, reduce the number of sows kept, and minimize risk.” A person in charge of the animal husbandry division at a county-level agriculture and rural affairs bureau in Henan said.

Many listed hog enterprises are also taking proactive action, responding to downward hog price pressure by cutting costs and increasing efficiency and by proactively reducing output.

According to information available, a certain large-scale hog breeding enterprise in central China lowered costs and increased efficiency by optimizing feed formulations, promoting intelligent feeding, and adjusting the production capacity schedule. At the same time, it used futures to hedge raw material price risks. In addition, it actively responded to the capacity regulation policy by taking measures such as proactively reducing production, lowering average weights at shipment, and stopping under-construction projects, to ensure hog prices run steadily.

Looking long term, how can China’s hog industry break out of the cyclical predicament of “big rises and big falls” and achieve healthy development? In the view of interviewed experts, the core is to push the hog industry’s transformation from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement,” thereby enabling high-quality development.

Wang Cheng, an expert from the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Science at the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, suggested focusing on breeding and selecting pig stocks with high reproductive capacity, high survival rates, and strong disease resistance. This would support the same shipment scale with fewer sows, lowering costs and improving efficiency at the source. Improve service support such as insurance, credit, and technology, and guide farms to scientifically arrange their replenishment and shipment schedules to stabilize industry development expectations. In addition, develop featured tracks such as black pigs, local pigs, and ecological pigs—targeting mid-to-high-end consumption and featured dining—so as to form a competitive pattern that is differentiated from ordinary pork.

Liu Yong, who has been in the hog industry for nearly 30 years and is the person in charge of Shandong Lianxiang Zhirong Agricultural and Livestock Technology Co., Ltd., said he can still keep a steady mindset and won’t follow the crowd in eliminating pigs just because hog prices have entered the bottom-grinding period. “With the trends of population aging, fewer births, and more diversified meat consumption markets, total demand in the pork market will decrease, but the pursuit of high-quality pork will not change. In the future, enterprises like ours will need to compete in a differentiated way with leading companies in the industry. We won’t compete by volume—we’ll compete by quality.” Liu Yong said.

Experts including Wang Cheng said that when doing the “subtraction” of capacity, it is not simply “reducing inventory and reducing shipments,” but rather reducing inefficient capacity, reducing excess capacity, and reducing internal waste. When doing the “addition” of benefits, the core is adding efficiency, quality, value, and confidence. By shifting from “making money by scale” to “making money through technology, quality, and brand,” China’s hog industry can truly get out of cycle-driven price volatility and achieve high-quality development characterized by stable output, better supply, improved efficiency, and benefits to the people. (By reporters Ban Juanjuan, Wang Wenbo, Ye Jing, Ma Yichong, Zhou Mian)

Source: Economic Information Daily