Analyst: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bulls continuing to face liquidation pressure.

ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8). CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator that measures how aggressively the derivatives market is going long/short, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants. This index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when the Bitcoin price was $73,925; since then, it has continued to fall, and today it has already dropped to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, the Bitcoin price fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving down in tandem with market prices, further confirming that the market structure is weakening. The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise; as of today, it has reached 18.6%. This means the market continues to forcibly close long positions, preventing the structure from recovering. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) stays at a high level and the clearly negative red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will continue to exist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, that will be the first signal that liquidation balance recovery has started. The reversal of the two indicators occurs in sync, reinforcing each other. Bitcoin’s peak from $74,883 has already fallen by about 11%, and there is no basis in the current derivatives market structure to support a sustained reversal: shorts are in control, longs are continually being flushed out, and a squeeze rally is hardly seen. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if liquidation-forcing pressure continues and the holding SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish setup will become further entrenched, and the downward pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify accordingly. " (Source: ODAILY)