U.S. military aircraft shot down in Iran, oil prices still high at $109

Just saw the news—U.S. officials have admitted it: a U.S. fighter jet was shot down inside Iran, and the crew’s whereabouts are unknown. Rescue teams are desperately searching for them, trying to get there before Iran does.
In addition, Iran’s highest Beik highway bridge has also been blown to pieces. Trump has said he will still strike energy, power plant, and water conservancy projects—if there’s no negotiation, he’ll beat you back to the Stone Age. Iran’s military fired back: then send the enemy back to the Stone Age first. Both sides are fired up, and no amount of persuasion helps.
Earlier, the market was still worried that the Strait of Hormuz might be “permanently closed,” but panic has eased somewhat now—yet passage remains difficult. Brent crude has only dropped symbolically, staying around $109.
What’s interesting is that someone calculated the numbers: Iran will probably need about $300–500 billion for post-war reconstruction, with a timeline of 5–8 years. China will most likely participate in a way of trading oil for infrastructure, which could be a potential boost for steel, cement, and engineering companies.
Now take a look at the U.S.’s “report card” in Afghanistan and Iraq—overthrowing the Taliban took just 2 months, and $40–50 billion. After that, trying to remake the country would cost $2.3 trillion over 20 years; more than 2,000 people died, and in the end they withdrew in a hurry. Iraq was even worse: $2 trillion spent, 4,492 people dead, and the result was a “copycat Iran” that still isn’t pro-U.S.
So even if Trump goes hard again this time, he probably won’t easily send ground troops. Blowing things up is one thing—but if you really get bogged down, that’s another “strategic black hole.”
Fight, fight, fight—reconstruction still relies on China. Oil prices likely won’t fall in the short term. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will rest for three days next, and U.S. stocks will also rest for three days—during this window… if you’re going to fight, then hit fast. $BTC ‌