April 2, 2026, Thursday Review: Survive first, then talk about survival!

This market recap is really not that meaningful, so here I’m going to look at the big picture and the logic instead. After all, basically every day you can see the main players’ intentions from a single dataset: the polarization of the data. When prices rise, more than 4,000 stocks are up; when prices fall, more than 4,000 stocks are down. That is definitely abnormal. When stocks rise, it’s driven by external factors—there’s a lack of initiative. When stocks fall, it’s proactive—that’s the problem within themselves![Taoguba]
First, point one: in the later stage, we need to see the main players’ initiative. The opportunities we’re looking for are not the kind where a message-driven pulse happens and the market just “pulls up” for a bit. Instead, it’s that the main players truly want to step in. Even if they step in and make a mistake later, you can still get out. But for those caused by message-driven pulses, it’s not necessarily the case. For example, in the computing power sector—the eighth time it’s been坑人.

Second: with quantitative strategies stepping into this market, we can’t avoid it. But after quant stepping in, opportunities really do become fewer. We need to recognize this reality. It also means that the trading frequency in the later period will gradually decrease. Quant strategies can only change short-term trends; they can’t change long-term trends. But if you really do long-term, then in a year you might only get two chances—if you can get 20% returns, that’s already very impressive. And I guess that still doesn’t count the fact that you may not be all-in, plus you also have to consider the issue of position sizing.

Then coming back to the present: what I’ve been talking about since last year is Yizhongtian—stubbornly staying at a high level. Now, look at it from another angle: treat Yizhongtian as a support-stock. Remove it from the order flow and look at what’s left—PCB, liquid cooling, robots have basically all fallen. Even Yizhongtian itself is the same. Today, in the comment section, I posted a picture: Yizhongtian is like a piece of meat—when a group of retail investors see that Yizhongtian hasn’t come down, they think the bull market is still here, so they go trade. But in reality, outside the market it’s basically a bear market. This week I’ve been extra cautious myself. I made two moves, and neither worked out. I’m not even the type who trades pure sentiment recently. If I were trading sentiment, it would probably blow up that day. Today there were only 27 limit-up stocks in total. Counting consecutive limit-ups together, the market already has no “living people.” Actually, everyone knows in their heart that this market is definitely going to come down. But because everyone is psychologically too clear about it, the main players’ tactics can’t work effectively!

In my earlier recaps, I wrote about the main players’ operating methods this year: first they drop the lower bound, then they drop the upper bound again. That can be inferred from last year’s rally method: back then, during the rally, they cycled between the main board and the ChiNext. This time, when it’s falling, the main board falls first, and only now is the ChiNext starting. From here, you can also tell that the so-called “slow rise and slow fall” of the main players is entirely reflected in the index, not in individual stocks. For individual stocks, no matter what, as long as the index does slow rise and slow fall is enough. That’s extremely perfunctory—but there’s nothing we can do! And later, it says: first drop the lower bound, then drop the upper bound. That way, the disagreement at the upper bound can keep creating opportunities for lower-bound accumulation. In the past, market sentiment was very easy to align—especially when quant trading started. Usually, a month-long pattern would run, and it would end within a week. In the early period, the lithium ore sentiment…

Now it’s medicine…

…going straight up and straight down.
Why does this kind of走势 (price action) appear? When the main players massacre a move to the downside, you don’t know where the bottom is. Even if you do spread-T trading on price differentials, it may not work—you could easily end up adding positions halfway up the mountain. That ultra-high voltage transmission case is a typical example! And if you get trapped, really, would it V back? On every part of the rally afterward, you’d be thinking, “Will this be the end?” At least in the best case, that’s what you think. If there are a few detours in the middle, you’ll slap your thigh in regret: “Why didn’t I sell when I broke even?” And if you’re someone outside the market, normally when sentiment is aligned, you notice it, you enter. The early lithium ore at the time was exactly like that. At the time, it was also said: the main players “play cards by looking at the hands”—the lithium ore institutions were clearly involved the most. Back then, there weren’t many medicine institutions involved, but money chose medicine instead—because the sentiment in lithium batteries was too aligned!

This is a pain point in the current order flow: the main players are indeed training retail investors to think in a long-term way. But if retail investors choose like Oriental Wealth—within five years, two cycles of bull and bear, the main upswing is only one or two weeks, and the rest of the time is distribution—how do you do it? How do you confirm that what you selected isn’t something like Oriental Wealth? Like robots, AI applications, and new energy vehicles right now—apparently, besides the optical modules segment, the走势 is basically like that. So this is a question of the broader trend and overall market outlook: where is the market currently progressing? I think looking at the stock price is the most appropriate. The market only has highs and lows—because if you talk logic, doesn’t CPO in 2024 have logic? They started a bull market in 2025, and they didn’t start rising until half a year later. After they rose, the market ended. Now it has become a tool for controlling the盘. How did the early days of Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Era become support stocks? It’s because after they finished rallying, they turned into support stocks. When institutions are packed in too much, even Yizhongtian is developing in that direction too!

At present overall, it’s still in a process of interest-rate cuts. Externally, things are indeed not very stable either, but the market really doesn’t have to be like this. I think it’s completely possible to activate a theme internally. But the main players didn’t do it that way, so there must be reasons of their own. If everyone stops playing—like today’s order flow: those trading new listings, trading the Beijing Stock Exchange, trading convertibles—no one is doing main-board stocks anymore. There are simply no “living people.” During the day there are all kinds of玄学, like the group back then of Henan… (Hefei?) —when the market’s worst situation appears, that’s when it shows up. Normally, each year’s行情 starts earlier by one year. But that commercial aerospace wave directly accelerated things. Actually, from that moment the行情 accelerated, it was basically clear that the main players would definitely take action later. I didn’t expect them to open it up big right after the holidays. So in this time period, I think the most important issue is: “survive.”

I think our market right now has learned a四不像 (not quite right, a mismatched hybrid). But over so many years, I believe retail investors should understand our market. If the US and Hong Kong stock markets aren’t good either, then we can hardly stay independent. When news pops up during the session, even Xiaomi Group’s stock price got cut in half. I think A-shares naturally won’t be any better either. Even a star company like that is like this—how much more so for everything else.

There are quite a few scams in the current order flow, especially quant-fabricated “making 连板” setups. That kind is where both first-day limit-ups and consecutive limit-ups are pulled by quant strategies. With very little money, they create a limit-up sentiment atmosphere, maintaining the order flow so retail investors feel that sentiment is okay. But in reality, it isn’t. There may be more quant-driven board creation later. I believe you should have already witnessed the “8 in, 8 out” in the computing power sector—8 times坑人. Today, I have to ask a question: if computing power really gets pulled up later, how can retail investors trust it? That’s the biggest problem. When I previously evaluated the market’s lower bound, I used one sentence: the main players’ next task is to make retail investors not dare to believe during a sector’s rally. At that point, the main players’ goal is completed. During this period, if you believe it wrong even once, then even if you make money in that sector afterward, it would only be getting back to break-even. If you keep staying, maybe you’ll end up with something like the power sector and ultra-high voltage transmission moving all the way north.

So if, in the current market, you want to grab a bit of opportunity—
First: reduce trading frequency.
Second: don’t take the fish head, don’t take the fish tail—only take the fish body. Eat it and go flat—no positions. If you miss it, wait.
Third: don’t worry about what the market is pulling up—just ask whether it’s within your model. If it’s not within your model, then also wait. This year just started. Since after the Spring Festival we’ve already been very careful, but we still underestimated this market. I think it’s still too subjective. For the upcoming market, treat it entirely as a bear market, keep waiting for the appearance of the second “foot.” What we fear isn’t the market crushing down and selling off. What we fear is the market keeps tormenting us back and forth right here. Even if the market occasionally gives a broad-based rally, we only look to see if there’s something beyond expectations or any highlight/imagination—otherwise, a broad rally alone can’t offset even one broad sell-off.

As for the行情: since this morning, right when computing power opened lower, there was already no hope. Because today we weren’t expecting institutions to push it up. If computing power can’t even continue, what’s the point of new themes coming out? Besides, what’s active in the market is pork. Because today is a one-way sell-off, tomorrow the focus is whether it opens high or opens low. If it opens low quickly, there may be a “pop up” move, and then we need to judge the premium of that pop—if it opens high, it’s possible to do a “sea-bottom hot pot” (a recovery late in the day).

Thanks to every brother who liked, rewarded, and cheered to keep me going. In the process of pursuing my goals, I’ve been calm and steady, and it’s helped me go one step further. I also felt the value of sharing knowledge. I’ll continue to share more valuable content. Thank you for your support! And I also wish all the brothers who do a one-click triple (like/comment/subscribe) to have their accounts turn all the way up and prosper this year—up, up, and on the right track! Thanks to the brothers who kept working hard and pushing on—@BOGUAN @半途开悟 @快去玩连连看 @Kindop @燕十三d @股坛一生 @老泪纵横 @Qik1ng @我家狗叫国宝 @小宝1105 @飞龙在天 Buy in and it goes up immediately
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