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Central banks' interest rate responses are shaping up quickly but cautiously in response to the energy shock and inflationary pressures created by the conflict, and are diverging due to a lack of global coordination. The Federal Reserve is delaying its rate-cutting cycle, and even signaling further tightening of up to 25 basis points if necessary, as sustained oil prices push headline inflation by 40 basis points or more, because the second round of core inflation risks triggering a wage spiral, and Fed models estimate a growth loss of 0.5 percentage points in a stagflation scenario. The European Central Bank is holding its deposit rate at 3.25 percent and signaling no cuts in the next six months, as import inflation in energy-importing Eurozone economies rises to 5.5 percent, as the weakening euro-dollar parity and rising logistics costs make core inflation sticky, highlighting the ECB's mandate of price stability.

The People's Bank of China, while taking steps to support the yuan as the oil shock hits Asian supply chains, is keeping its policy interest rate at 3.5% and injecting liquidity by lowering reserve requirements. However, due to inflation remaining below its target, it is pursuing a balanced policy to support growth rather than aggressive tightening. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, on the other hand, is keeping its policy interest rate at 50% due to the current account deficit pressure created by its status as an energy importer and the depreciation of the Turkish lira. It is also sending signals of further tightening against the risk of inflation exceeding 60%, as the amplification of imported inflation and a 20% increase in food prices are disrupting local inflation expectations. The TCMB's priority is to protect its foreign exchange reserves and continue the fight against inflation.

In other developing countries, such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia, central banks are showing a tendency to raise interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points in response to sharp currency depreciation, further restricting global capital flows and increasing borrowing costs. While central banks generally act proactively in combating inflation, they maintain data-driven and flexible interest rate policies due to the uncertain duration of the conflict. However, analyses by the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements emphasize that in a long-term energy crisis scenario, a simultaneous wave of tightening has the potential to drag global growth down by one percentage point. In this context, achieving de-escalation through diplomacy is considered the most critical element in alleviating interest rate pressure.
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