Support drops to 33%, hitting a new low: economic pain drags down Trump, Republican midterm elections sound the alarm

Trump’s approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his second term. Economic dissatisfaction and anger are eroding his core voter base. With less than seven months until the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican Party’s alarms are now ringing on all fronts.

According to CCTV, according to the latest U.S. polling data, Trump’s support on economic issues has dropped to 31%, the lowest new low during his time in office. Reports say that after the U.S. carried out military action against Iran, U.S. oil prices rose, further intensifying Americans’ economic pressure and feelings of dissatisfaction.

Only 24% of respondents approve of how the government is handling inflation, down noticeably from 33% a year earlier; the proportion opposing tariff policies is as high as 64%, and only 28% say they support them.

According to a poll released this Monday by the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 33%, the lowest point in his second term.

The most alarming signal for Republicans is that the blue-collar working-class base that helped Trump win two elections in the first place has shown clear cracks. 17% of Trump voters from 2024 now have doubts about the choice they made at the time, and his net approval among adult household members in families with an annual income below $50,000 has fallen to negative 22 percentage points.

Polling decline accelerates, tariff-triggered inflation fuels dissatisfaction

According to an analysis by the British Financial Times, the downward trend in Trump’s approval rating can be traced back to last December—well before military action in the Middle East began—indicating that the root cause of voter dissatisfaction lies more in domestic economic policy.

A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll shows that the 33% overall approval rating is the lowest value across his entire second term. Economists have long warned that tariffs would create inflationary pressure. Only 24% of respondents approve of the government’s handling of inflation, whereas the figure was 33% a year earlier.

According to CCTV, the latest U.S. polling shows Trump’s support on economic issues has fallen to 31%, an all-time low; 77% of respondents believe that “the U.S. economy is in bad shape,” and Republican voters’ economic satisfaction has dropped by 14 percentage points compared with earlier.

In a 19-minute nationwide televised address on Wednesday evening, Trump acknowledged these “short-term” economic pains and blamed the surge in gasoline prices on the “crazy” attacks launched by Iran against shipping through the Strait. Analysts believe this statement shows he has become aware of the slump in public opinion.

Oil price shock spreads, cracks appear in the working-class base

The latest polls show that 63% of respondents say that “rising oil prices have caused households some degree of economic hardship.” An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices elevated for a sustained period, becoming one of the channels through which voters experience economic pressure most directly.

For Republicans, the most warning sign is Trump’s net approval rating of negative 22 percentage points among adult household members in families with an annual income below $50,000.

Attracting working-class voters is the core logic behind Trump’s two election wins. A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll also shows that 17% of Trump voters in 2024 have doubts about the choice they made at the time. This means his electoral coalition is falling apart in real time.

A White House slip adds uncertainty; the path to a breakthrough in the midterms remains unclear

Against the backdrop of an increasingly fragile campaign, a remark Trump made at his Easter luncheon on Wednesday left Republican insiders even more uneasy. He said plainly:

“We can’t take care of the daycare. We’re a big country, and we’re at war. Taking care of the daycare, Medicaid, Medicare—these are not things we can do.”

For working-class voters who were already deeply worried about the government’s position on social spending, this statement is nothing short of pouring salt on the wound.

In addition to polling pressure, Trump’s tariff agenda and immigration policy (the two hallmark policies of his second term) are currently also facing resistance on the judicial front.

According to James Politi, head of the Washington bureau of the Financial Times, the White House and the Republican Party are facing the urgent challenge of how to turn things around before the November 2026 election. Judging from where polling is headed right now, this path is not an easy one.

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