Just finished analyzing this wave of market movement, from 98,000 down to 74,000. I want to share the true logic behind this decline.

Actually, many people are asking me, what kind of market is this? Is it a correction or a trend? My judgment is very clear—this is the start of a new trend, not a complicated correction. When the price was around 98,000, I already had a top view because, on the hourly chart, once a trend is formed, it’s very difficult to reverse easily.

Why is it easier to hold onto this decline? Simply put, because it happened quickly. Many trend traders can’t hold onto big moves because the market moves too slowly. Spending three weeks or even a month, any rebound in the middle might make them doubt whether the trend has ended. But this time is different; the market dropped over 20,000 points in a short period, which actually makes trend-following traders more likely to stick with it.

The current question is, what should those already holding short positions do? The conclusion is clear—there’s no need to exit everything. You can take partial profits in stages, but you must keep some positions to bet on further declines. The key point is that, currently, there are no clear reversal signals from the daily to the hourly chart, so continuing to hold short positions is reasonable.

From a multi-timeframe perspective, the overall structure still favors a bearish outlook. The most obvious resistance level on the hourly chart is at 79,000, which has not been effectively broken. The previous levels at 84,000 and 90,000 follow the same logic—if the resistance isn’t broken, stay bearish. The recent rebound high also didn’t break previous highs, so the short logic remains valid.

If you are in a flat position, consider short-term shorts, but always prioritize stop-loss placement. Defensive stops can be placed above 79,000 or simply above the 80,000 round number. Short positions must have strict stop-losses because there’s always a possibility of a short-term upward breakout.

A true reversal requires two conditions: an effective breakthrough of key resistance levels and the formation of a clear bullish structure. It’s especially important to note that if the reversal only appears on the hourly chart, it’s more likely just a healthy correction within a larger downtrend, not a sign of a major cycle reversal. A major cycle reversal requires seeing a larger timeframe bullish arrangement.

If, in the future, there is a key resistance breakthrough and a bullish structure on the hourly chart, it could trigger a rebound on the daily chart. In this case, the key resistance zone is between 86,000 and 89,000. When participating in a bullish move, you should only do so after resistance is broken and the structure is confirmed—entering small long positions at the bottom to catch the rebound, not preemptively.

I’ve always said that the best approach in a trend is to trade only in one direction. The reason is simple: retracement risks are too high, and trying to catch both longs and shorts can easily disrupt the rhythm. Once the rhythm is broken, it’s easy to chase shorts at lows, chase longs at highs, and get stopped out repeatedly, ultimately reversing the trend. If you exit early, the best move isn’t to jump into new trades immediately but to wait for the next clear correction structure before re-entering.

Overall, the current structure remains: decline—rebound—resistance—consider shorting again. This logic is exactly the same as in previous key levels. So, the main trend remains bearish. In the coming days, I will also share my views on the larger cycle to provide a more systematic analysis.