Gate Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars (March 23–March 29, 2026)

null 1. Market Focus Interpretation

The key drivers behind last week’s market were a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. As the Strait of Hormuz faced a tangible threat, WTI crude oil prices surged by nearly 17% over the week, reclaiming levels above the $100 mark. This also triggered strong inflation expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and dealing a heavy blow to high-valuation technology stocks. The U.S. Dollar Index broke above the 100 level, suppressing gold’s gains. Cryptocurrencies, as a high-risk asset, saw significant sell-offs, with losses of more than 6% in a single week on average. With the U.S.-Iran conflict entering its fifth week and still showing no signs of resolution, the sell-off wave continued. Indicators of volatility and uncertainty from last week reflected the current macroeconomic tone: the VIX index closed at 31.05, the highest level since the outbreak of war; meanwhile, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index fell to the “Extreme Fear” level, the lowest since last November. The bond market further adjusted its pricing: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.44%, and the 30-year yield briefly broke above 5% before pulling back to slightly below that level. This trend reflects the market’s deeply rooted expectation that “high interest rates will last longer.” Currently, the market broadly believes the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates before fall is extremely low, while the probability of this year’s rate hikes by 25 basis points is about 25%.

2. Liquidity Analysis

2.1 Net Crypto ETF Flows

Over the past week, crypto ETF fund flows showed a clear “outflow first, then repair” pattern. In the midweek period, sentiment rapidly weakened: spot ETFs in total recorded net outflows of approximately $500 million, with BTC outflows of about $296 million and ETH outflows of about $207 million. Selling pressure was concentrated mainly on two trading days, March 26–27, indicating that institutions were clearly de-risking in stages. By the weekend, gold saw marginal inflows, ending the streak of multi-day outflows. Overall, under macro uncertainty, institutional capital still primarily favors cautious allocation.

2.2 TradFi Liquidity

Over the past week, core on-chain trading activity continued to revolve around volatility in macro assets. Perp DEX TradFi trading volume rose to $17 billion. Crude oil trading remained the largest weight but continued to decline sequentially. Gold’s share rose again. On CEXs, TradFi perpetual trading volume surged, with March 23 setting a record high for trading volume. All subcategories saw notable growth, with large commodities and metals recording the highest sequential percentage increases.

Over the past week, changes in PAXG market depth exhibited a “weak at first, then strong, with tail-end volume expansion” structure. At the start of the week, Delta was mainly negative; combined with prices falling back from elevated levels, it showed the market was dominated by net selling, with liquidity tending to withdraw. Then, around March 23, a round of concentrated sell pressure emerged, corresponding to a rapid price pullback and creating a stage of liquidity vacuum. By the weekend, the depth structure improved markedly: Delta turned persistently positive and expanded significantly in scale, indicating that capital began actively absorbing and driving a rebound in prices.

Over the past week, the number of TradFi asset categories further expanded. The total number across the three major mainstream CEXs for TradFi asset categories (only counting the TradFi and CFD segments, excluding perpetual contracts) increased from 598 to 619, a 3.5% sequential rise. Among them, metal categories grew most significantly, rising from 22 to 31, a 40% sequential increase. Overall, last week only Gate saw some increase in the number of TradFi asset categories.

3. On-Chain Data Insights

3.1 DEX Trading Cools Off, Meteora Maintains a High Level

Trading activity cooled down from last week’s spike and pullback, and top protocols generally retreated. Both PancakeSwap and Uniswap’s weekly trading volumes fell versus the prior week. Spot trading demand on major chains overall converged downward. On the Solana side, activity diverged: Meteora still maintained a high level of just above $20 billion in weekly trading volume, but marginal incremental gains slowed down. Raydium’s weekly trading volume declined 50% sequentially, the largest drop among leading DEXs. Aerodrome, Humidifi, and Bisonfi also all saw declines to varying degrees. Based on the protocol side, PancakeSwap’s Infinity architecture and Meteora’s DLMM remain the strongest efficiency labels, but this week the market is placing more emphasis on predictable liquidity.

3.2 Stablecoin Total Supply Consolidates at High Levels; DAI Shows Resilience

This week, there was no new external incremental growth in the stablecoin sector; overall, it consolidated at high levels. USDT was nearly flat with the previous week. USDC fell by about $1.4 billion, and PYUSD also dropped by nearly $200 million. Demand for stablecoins oriented toward payments and settlement eased slightly this week. Relative stability came from protocol stablecoins: DAI grew slightly, while USDS stayed at high levels. USD1, USDe, and GHO saw small fluctuations, leaning toward structural reallocation. In recent weeks, Circle has continued expanding USDC + CCTP multi-chain coverage, but this week’s data indicates that within stablecoins, demand is shifting from payments and settlement toward resilience in DeFi scenarios.

3.3 LST Protocols Retract Simultaneously; Both ETH and SOL Start to Slow Down

This week, in liquid staking, the two main tracks—ETH and SOL—both slowed down in tandem. Driven by ETH’s weaker performance, capital in ETH LSTs began trimming positions in stages; both Lido and Rocket Pool TVL declined. Lido’s V3 and the expansion of the EarnETH / EarnUSD vaults have widened product boundaries, but in the short term, TVL is still more influenced by market risk appetite and fluctuations in the prices of staked assets. The SOL direction faced similar pressure, with Jito and Sanctum Validator LSTs also experiencing pullbacks. Overall, this week saw a decline in risk appetite across the whole sector.

3.4 Aave Loan Volume Retracts; Mantle Gains as a Minority Absorbing Incremental Growth

This week, Aave’s total outstanding loan balance fell slightly compared to the prior week. Both the Ethereum main market and Plasma saw a drop of about $100 million, and the mainstream markets showed signs of deleveraging. Multi-chain expansion also temporarily slowed this week, with Base and Arbitrum pulling back in sync. Mantle is one of the few markets growing against the tide. Its loan scale rose from $555 million to $574 million, becoming a structural highlight of the week. Ink also edged up from $289 million to $292 million, but the increase was limited. Aave has been advancing around a V4 Hub-and-Spoke design recently. The market is pricing liquidity efficiency across markets for the future, but for now, capital is prioritizing shrinking overall leverage and allocating a small portion of incremental growth to sub-markets with new narratives.

3.5 Aave’s Three Core Asset Lending Rates Continue to Diverge

USDC’s average floating borrowing APR rose from 3.10% to 3.23%. This week, demand for dollar stablecoins did not weaken in sync with the decline in total outstanding loans. In contrast, USDT fell from 3.10% to 3.02%, and WETH also slipped slightly from 2.25% to 2.23%. This week, on-chain capital compressed broader risk exposure while concentrating borrowing demand more on USDC. From a strategy perspective, this typically corresponds to institutions preferring to use USDC for liquidity routing, collateral management, and neutral strategy rotation. Combined with Aave’s latest governance progress, V4’s risk isolation and liquidity routing framework are gradually becoming clearer. In the future, rate divergence among different assets will likely occur more frequently and better reflect true capital preferences.

3.6 Protocol Revenue Shifts Back from Trading-Driven to Inventory-Driven

Revenue for trading-type protocols cooled overall, while stablecoin issuers remained the steadiest profit center. Tether and Circle’s revenues during the week stayed in high, stable ranges. By comparison, Hyperliquid fell from $14.3025 million to $12.6277 million, Pump decreased from $7.1452 million to $6.6905 million, and EdgeX also dropped from $4.5534 million to $3.7969 million. The cooling of trading activity has transmitted to the revenue side. Overall, this week’s protocol revenue main line depends less on short-term trading volatility and more on other factors.

4. Derivatives Tracking

4.1 Funding Rates Shift Toward Short-Term Slightly Bullish; Sentiment Switches to Tentative Longs

BTC funding rates overall showed a structure that shifted from repair to briefly positive and then fluctuated again. The previously dominant short positioning in deep negative territory was clearly alleviated. Funding rates turned positive during the middle of the week and stayed that way for several days (at a peak close to +0.005). The market shifted toward active long positioning as a trial, with short-term risk appetite showing a repair and creating some resonance with the price’s partial rebound. However, this positive funding period was brief and of limited strength, and it did not form a trend-like positive premium structure.

4.2 Open Interest Spikes, Then Falls, Followed by Consolidation; Leveraged Capital Turns to Watch-and-Wait

Over the past week, BTC open interest initially expanded along with rising prices and reached a stage high, but then quickly fell to around $21B as prices pulled back, indicating clear deleveraging. After that, open interest failed to return to the prior high. Instead, it oscillated and repaired within the $21B–$22.5B range, with the overall center of gravity moving lower. There was insufficient motivation for new capital to enter, and leverage shifted from expansion to contraction. Overall, the current positioning structure is dominated by inventory competition, lacking sustained volume expansion to support it. The market remains in a post-deleveraging consolidation and rebuilding phase.

4.3 Options Positioning Concentrated in Mid-to-Far Maturities and High Strikes; Long Structure Has the Advantage

BTC options open interest is mainly concentrated in mid-to-far maturity contracts such as April and June, indicating the market is focused on medium-term positioning. Structurally, Calls are clearly higher than Puts, so the overall profile remains biased toward longs. In terms of strike prices, Calls mainly cluster in the $80,000–$120,000 range, while Puts are distributed in the $60,000–$80,000 range, forming a typical structure of upside calls and downside hedging. Note that Put open interest in the $60K–$70K area is not low, suggesting that while the market maintains a medium-term upside expectation, short-term defensive sentiment is also strengthening.

4.4 Skew Remains in Negative Territory; Short-Term Defensive Sentiment Still Dominates

Over the past week, BTC 25D Skew overall stayed in negative territory (about -6 to -10). Puts still carried a relative premium compared with Calls, meaning the market’s pricing of downside risk remains relatively high. Shorter cycles (7D, 30D) showed more pronounced volatility: it fell quickly at one point and then briefly recovered, reflecting repeated switching in short-term sentiment. In contrast, medium-to-long term (60D and above) remained relatively stable, with the overall range maintained around -5 to -7, indicating that medium-term risk expectations did not change much. Overall, Skew has not shown a sustained rebound toward neutral or positive values, meaning that even though the market attempted to repair, defensive allocations still dominate.

4.5 Implied Volatility Stabilizes; Market Has Limited Expectations for Short-Term Volatility

Over the past week, the BTC DVol index remained range-bound between 52% and 55%. It first dipped slightly and then rose again, without a trend-like increase. The market’s pricing for future volatility therefore remains fairly restrained. During the period, prices experienced a clear pullback, but implied volatility only rose moderately. There was no panic-style amplification, and the market did not treat the current correction as a high-risk event. Overall, IV shows some decoupling from price, reflecting traders’ tendency to expect range-bound volatility rather than a one-directional trend.

5. Outlook for This Week

6. Gate Institutional Activity Updates

Refined Operations

1 Advancing data-driven and fine-grained management to precisely identify customer needs and enrich tailored solutions

2 Waking up dormant users has shown remarkable results

Capital Business

1 Collateralized lending scale continues to grow, approaching bull market levels

2 BTC interest rates cut, driving growth in new demand

Products and Technology

1 Websocket contract BBO real-time push, with full rollout in April

2 AI gradually being implemented; institutional services enter an AI-assisted operations stage

Events and Market

1 CrossEx advanced trading incentive plan is launched. Starting April 9, up to -0.01% contract rebate on maker order fees

2 The April Hong Kong Web3 Festival Side Event is about to begin

Data Sources:

• Investing,

• Gate,

• CMC,

• Coinglass,

• Dune,

• CryptoQuant,

• Amberdata,

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Disclaimer

Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they purchase before making any investment decision. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages caused by such investment decisions.