Institutions: The insurance industry continues to benefit from the trend of bank deposit relocations

Guoxin Securities believes that in 2025, the life insurance business will achieve steady growth driven by both strong growth in the bancassurance channel and the shift to dividend insurance products, with the value rate seeing a marked improvement. On the asset side, listed insurers are proactively increasing their allocation to equities; equity capital gains have become the core driving force behind full-year profit growth, and the total investment return on investment hits the best level in recent years, even in historical terms. Against the backdrop of the continued decline in assumed interest rates and the long-term normalization of a low-interest-rate environment, the insurance industry is accelerating its transition from traditional fixed-income products to floating-rate products. It is expected that in 2025, the industry’s premium growth year-on-year will be approximately 8% to 10%, and the NBV growth rate will be 28%.

China Southern Securities believes that in the short term, due to external factors such as the conflict between Iran and Israel, the A-share market has undergone a correction, which brings some pressure to the insurance industry’s investment side. In the long run, the insurance industry continues to benefit from the trend of “bank deposits moving elsewhere.” In 2025, growth in new business and NBV on the liabilities side is impressive; the “opening red” campaign in 2026 will lay a solid foundation for the full-year performance of the liabilities side and is expected to carry forward the favorable trend on the liabilities side.