Just checked Polymarket and saw the U.S. government shutdown prediction is sitting at 48% odds right now. Interesting thing is, this probability of an event was actually higher a while back at 57%, so it's come down a bit from those levels. The betting odds have been fluctuating quite a bit on this one. Around $87k has been wagered on this particular prediction so far, which shows there's decent interest in how this plays out. It's wild how much money flows into these political prediction markets - the probability of an event like this really swings based on news and political developments. Anyway, worth keeping an eye on how these odds shift as we get closer to the deadline.