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Just caught the latest soybean news today - futures jumped 4 to 5 and a half cents yesterday, pretty solid move. The cash price is now sitting at $10.00 and a half, up nearly 5 cents. Interesting part is the Treasury dropped new guidance on the 45Z tax credit this morning, and that's already boosting bean oil prices and clearing up some of the uncertainty that's been hanging over the market.
Looking at the supply side, USDA's Fats & Oils report showed December crush came in at 229.84 million bushels - bit light on expectations, but we're still seeing a 4.24% bump from November and 5.59% year-over-year. Since September the cumulative crush hit 891.58 million bushels, up 7.43% compared to last year. Meanwhile, EU soybean imports from July through February totaled 7.29 million metric tons, which is actually down 1.33 million metric tons versus the same period last year.
Soymeal took a hit though, dropping between $1.40 and $2.60, while soy oil futures crushed it with gains of 102 to 129 points. The soybean market news is definitely being shaped by these oil price moves right now. March 26 soybeans closed at $10.65 and three quarters, up 5 and a half cents, and the further contracts are following suit - May sitting at $10.77 and a quarter, July at $10.90 and a half. Worth keeping an eye on how these policy changes play out.