Crude oil accelerates the world's "reshuffle"

Once we understand the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz to major global powers, it is not hard to judge which way the U.S.-Iran conflict will go—and the two historical positions of the U.S.-Iran conflict are also being underestimated by today’s market. First, for the global energy system, the U.S.-Iran conflict should be the fourth crude oil supply shift since World War II. Second, for the map of the global balance-of-power structure, the U.S.-Iran conflict marks an acceleration in the pace of the transition of the global order. Since the U.S.-Iran conflict is moving in the direction of long-term friction, what follows is not just a simple increase in the crude oil price “midpoint.” The rise and fall of the crude oil price midpoint comes alongside the remaking of the global order and power re-shuffling—this has played out many times in history. So calling the U.S.-Iran conflict the “war of the century” is by no means an overstatement.

Three times the crude oil price midpoint has shifted up and down since World War II

After World War II, the world has gone through four crude oil supply shifts. After each shift, the crude oil price midpoint will move systematically up or down. The first was two Middle East wars in the 1970s; the second was in the 1980s, when non-OPEC countries’ crude oil production exceeded that of OPEC. The third was the shale oil revolution of 2013–2014. The fourth is the U.S.-Iran conflict that has just broken out.

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