Analyst: Bitcoin profit and loss supply approaches the level of a "true bear market"

CoinDesk news on April 3: According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the current Bitcoin profitable supply is about 11.2 million coins, the loss-making supply is about 8.2 million coins, and it is already close to typical bear-market levels. Compared with the lowest point of the 2022 bear market, the profitable supply was 9 million coins, while the loss-making supply was about 10.6 million coins. The analyst believes this indicates the market is moving into a significantly undervalued state, and the bottom may be near. However, Bitrue exchange research head Andri Fauzan Adziima believes the data reflects “rising market pressure rather than immediate undervaluation”; the true bottom needs to be accompanied by deeper losses (such as 2022 loss-making supply exceeding 50% and profitable supply falling below 45%). Currently, Bitcoin is down about 52% from its all-time high, far below the 77%-84% drawdown seen in past bear markets. In addition, analyst Timothy Peterson noted that a stronger U.S. dollar (the U.S. Dollar Index is up about 5% over two months) and a weaker Chinese yuan have limited Bitcoin’s rebound; he expects the dollar’s appeal will not likely weaken until the second half of 2026 or 2027.