Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, even the final dip is unlikely to break below $45,500.

ZkProver · 2026-04-03T04:12:47+00:00

Analyst Murphy pointed out that the on-chain average turnover cost for holding BTC for 1-2 years intersects with that for 1-3 months, indicating that BTC is entering the late stage of the bear market. Additionally, the long-term valuation metric CVDD has reached $45,410, showing that whale holders are reducing their turnover. The bear market bottom is unlikely to fall below $45,500, with an expected decline of less than 30%.

ZkProver

2026-04-03 04:12:47

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ChainCatcher message. Analyst Murphy said that it has been observed that the on-chain average turnover cost (yellow line) for BTC holders with 1–2 years and the on-chain average turnover cost (orange line) for BTC holders with 1–3 months have crossed. At the data level on-chain, this signal can be almost 100% confirmed, indicating that BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market.

In addition, Murphy also said that the Bitcoin long-term valuation metric CVDD proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, up only $506 from February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have already significantly reduced their holdings and have even nearly stopped on-chain turnover.

CVDD is one of the rare indicators in Bitcoin history that has never failed—price has always remained above CVDD. At bear-market bottoms, it will only come infinitely close to it but never break below it. Therefore even if there is still a “last drop,” BTC will not fall below about $45,500. Theoretically, there would be at most about a 30% downside, but in reality it is very likely far less than that.

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