#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

In addition to whale handovers, determining whether BTC has entered a bottom zone mainly depends on whether the “market is already extremely distressed” and “selling pressure has been exhausted.” It is recommended to focus on the following four on-chain indicators:

1. Profit and Loss Status Indicators (Assess Valuation and Sentiment)

This is the most direct measure of whether the “market is cheap.”

MVRV Ratio (Market Value / Realized Market Value)

Bottom signal: When MVRV < 1, it indicates that the current market price is below the average cost basis of the entire network, and the market is generally in a loss. Historically, when MVRV is around 0.8 or lower, it usually signifies a deep value zone.

Advanced usage: Pay attention to LTH-MVRV (Long-Term Holder MVRV). When the price falls below the long-term holder’s average cost (LTH-MVRV < 1), it indicates that even the most steadfast HODLers are starting to incur losses, which is an extreme “capitulation” signal.

SOPR and its variants (Spent Output Profit Ratio)

aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR): Filters out noise trades. When aSOPR remains below 1 for an extended period, it suggests that most on-chain movement involves “selling at a loss,” indicating panic selling.

STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder SOPR): Acts as a sentiment thermometer. If STH-SOPR stays below 1 for a long time, it shows that recent speculators are thoroughly trapped and beginning to cut losses, signaling that the shakeout is nearing completion.

2. Holder Behavior Indicators (Assess Chip Turnover)

Whale activity focuses on large investors, but here we look at the overall chip accumulation.

Long-Term Holder Supply (LTH Supply)

Logic: The bottom of a bear market is a process of chips shifting from “weak hands” to “strong hands.”

Signal: After a significant price dip, if LTH supply stops declining and begins to rise again, it indicates that long-term investors find the price attractive and are starting to accumulate, reducing selling pressure.

Net Realized Profit/Loss

Signal: Observe the peak of daily net losses on the chart. When there is a huge single-day net loss (red bar height), it often corresponds to the extreme “capitulation” sell-off, also known as the “panic bottom.”

3. Cost Structure Indicators (Assess Support Levels)

Realized Price

Meaning: The average purchase cost of all Bitcoin in the network.

Application: During historical bear markets, BTC price often revisits or briefly dips below the realized price, then forms an important bottom. It is a key reference line for judging the “iron bottom.”

STH and LTH Cost Inversion

Phenomenon: Usually, long-term holders have lower costs, and short-term holders have higher costs. But at extreme bottoms, due to frequent loss-cutting and turnover, it’s possible for STH’s average cost to be lower than LTH’s, creating a rare inversion.

Significance: Indicates that short-term speculators have been thoroughly cleaned out, and the market is in a severe oversold state.

4. Network Activity Indicators (Assess Demand Recovery)

New Address Growth Rate

Signal: Bottoms are not only characterized by exhausted selling pressure but also by new capital entering the market. When the 30-day moving average of new addresses crosses above the 365-day moving average again, it indicates network growth recovery and demand warming.

Practical advice: How to use these indicators together?

Relying on a single indicator can be unreliable; the bottom is a “resonance zone,” not a “point.” It is recommended to combine the following signals for judgment:

High-probability bottom features:

MVRV < 1 (market generally in loss);

aSOPR or STH-SOPR continuously < 1 (panic capitulation);

Long-term holder supply stabilizing or slightly increasing (steadfast investors start accumulating).

⚠️ Risk reminder:

On-chain indicators are lagging; they confirm “already occurred pain,” not “immediate rebound.”

In extreme macro risks (such as liquidity crises), support levels like CVDD may also be broken. Do not rely solely on indicators for all-in bets; staggered deployment remains the best strategy to navigate bottom oscillations.