Based on current on-chain data and macro environment, BTC has indeed entered the "bottoming" phase of the latter half of the bear market. However, whether the "worst-case scenario" is over depends on how you define "bad." From the perspective of panic selling during a price plunge, the worst is near; but from the long-term sideways consolidation and capital time cost, the suffering may still be ahead.

Regarding your two core questions, here is a detailed analysis:

1. Is the worst-case scenario nearing its end?

Conclusion: Price discovery is approaching the end, but emotional recovery and capital reflow still require time.

On-chain bottom signals emerging (supporting the "end-phase" theory)

CVDD Indicator: The CVDD metric (around $45,500) you mentioned is indeed one of the most reliable "bottom" references in history. BTC price has never effectively broken below this indicator, and current prices are above this support, indicating entry into a historically undervalued zone.

Holder behavior: The crossover of 1-2 year and 1-3 month holder costs, along with long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) falling below 1, suggests that even steadfast hodlers are starting to sell at a loss. Historically, this often corresponds to the final capitulation in panic selling, a typical feature of bottom regions.

Structural selling pressure persists (countering the "completely over" theory)

Whale turnover ≠ cessation of selling: Data shows that early whales (holding 1k-10k BTC) have indeed reduced frequent on-chain activity, but overall, they remain in a "distribution" phase. They are not stopping turnover but shifting from "accumulation" to "selling on rebounds," creating ongoing upward resistance.

Demand vacuum: Despite institutional buying via ETFs, retail and some large holders' selling pressure still exceeds buying, resulting in overall demand being negative. The market is in a "old money exiting, new money entering" turnover phase, which often involves prolonged sideways and downward movements rather than V-shaped reversals.

2. Is it worth gradually deploying now?

Conclusion: For long-term investors with a 2-3 year horizon, now is a good time to start "left-side dollar-cost averaging"; for short-term traders, patience is still needed for right-side signals.

✅ Reasons to consider deploying (long-term perspective)

Valuation cushion is relatively thick: CVDD provides about a 30% maximum theoretical retracement space (to $45,500), and historically, actual declines have been much smaller. Buying in tranches at current levels offers higher long-term odds.

Clear cycle position: The latter half of the bear market is the best time for "planting seeds." Once macro interest rate environments shift (e.g., the Fed, the Federal Reserve, cuts rates), the suppressed risk assets will undergo revaluation.

⚠️ Deployment strategy and risk tips

Must be "gradual" rather than "all-in": Recognize that the bottom is a range, not a point. Use a "pyramid" approach: invest one-third or one-half of your planned funds at current prices, then add gradually if prices fall to $50,000 or even $45,000.

Beware of "time decay": The most frustrating part of the bottom zone isn't the decline itself but the prolonged sideways consolidation over months. Be psychologically prepared to lock funds for 6-12 months, ensuring you're investing idle money.

Macro black swan risk: Models like CVDD are based on historical data. If a severe global recession or liquidity crisis occurs, Bitcoin as a high-risk asset could break below historical support levels, posing extreme risks.

3. Summary advice

If you believe in Bitcoin's long-term value: Current on-chain data indicates that the worst price decline phase is nearing its end. Starting a 6-12 month dollar-cost averaging plan now offers a higher probability of success than risk.

If you seek short-term gains: The market is still digesting whale selling pressure, lacking clear bullish catalysts. It’s advisable to continue observing, waiting for ETF net inflows or a breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $72,000) for a confirmed right-side signal.

Final reminder: On-chain data is a "map," not a "traffic condition." It tells you where you are in the cycle but cannot predict specific daily ups or downs. Managing position size and maintaining patience are key to navigating the latter half of the bear market.