Wolfe Research warns Mexican importers of potential risks from tariff policy adjustments

LootboxPhobia · 2026-04-02T11:53:08+00:00

Wolfe Research warns that the tariff adjustments proposed by the White House could increase the costs of products manufactured by U.S. companies in Mexico. The new proposal to impose a 25% tariff will raise the nominal tax rate on imported goods, potentially putting pressure on companies that qualify under the USMCA agreement.

LootboxPhobia

2026-04-02 11:53:08

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Investing.com – Wolfe Research warned on Thursday that proposed tariff structure changes from the White House could create inflation pressure for major U.S. companies with substantial manufacturing operations in Mexico.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday evening that the White House is seeking to adjust the current 50% import tariff levied based on non-U.S. steel and aluminum content to a 25% tariff based on the total value of imported products.

Wolfe Research said that in typical imported products, the costs of steel and aluminum (including parts supply) usually account for 30%–35% of the total value or less. Under this structure, shifting to a 25% tariff levied on the total product value could mean that the nominal tariff rate for all imported goods increases.

The firm emphasized that for non-metal products among those currently from Mexico and Canada that qualify under the USMCA, the tariff is zero. If the proposed 25% tariff applies to these imported goods, companies including Lennox International (NYSE:LII), Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR), Vertiv Holdings (NYSE:VRT), nVent Electric (NYSE:NVT), and Hubbell (NYSE:HUBB) could face a significant increase in costs.

Wolfe Research also pointed out that Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) faces potential risk due to imported steel products with high gross margins.

The research firm said that details are still limited, and the proposal has raised questions about product eligibility criteria and how products with different metal content would be handled. The firm believes the move could be related to USMCA verification procedures that must be completed before July 1, 2026.

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