Spot Gold Strong Rebound Analysis

Spot gold has launched a strong rebound from the low of 4661, breaking through the key resistance level of 4720, and has entered a vigorous bullish trend. This is due to a resonance of multiple positive factors including macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical situations, capital flows, and technical indicators, rather than a single driving factor.

1. Core Trigger: Increasing Expectations of a Shift in Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

US economic data have not shown exceptional resilience, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year continue to strengthen. CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in June has risen to 3.9%. Expectations of rate cuts have led to a weakening of the US dollar index and a decline in the 10-year US Treasury yields. As an interest-free asset, gold’s holding costs decrease significantly with falling yields, prompting global investment funds to increase their holdings, forming the core fundamental driver for the rally.

2. Key Boost: Geopolitical Fluctuations and Cross-Market Capital Rotation

Signals of easing in the Middle East situation have temporarily cooled market risk aversion, but the safe-haven attribute of gold has been fully activated, making it an important choice for risk-averse capital. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have fallen sharply due to geopolitical easing, leading to large-scale capital withdrawal from the oil market and flow into the risk-averse, inflation-hedging gold market. Cross-market capital rotation directly amplifies buying power and accelerates the upward movement of gold prices.

3. Solid Support: Technical Patterns and Breakthrough of Key Levels

Gold prices have formed a bottom around 4661, showing a standard bullish pattern with higher highs and higher lows. During pullbacks, the candlestick bodies are small and the lower shadows are full, indicating very light selling pressure and strong bullish momentum. After breaking through the key resistance of 4720, this level has turned into a strong support. Technical buying and short covering funds have concentrated into the market, driving prices higher with strong momentum.

4. Long-term Bottom Support: Continuous Gold Purchases by Global Central Banks

The long-term trend of central bank gold purchases remains unchanged, solidifying the bottom and limiting downside risk for gold prices. Once macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions turn favorable, gold prices can quickly rebound. Multiple factors work together to ultimately create this round of strong upward movement.

Risk Warning

Short-term market volatility remains possible. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non-farm payroll data, Federal Reserve policy statements, and geopolitical developments on gold prices. #四月行情预测 $XAU