Iran’s president calls military response measured and defensive

TestnetScholar · 2026-04-01T19:18:16+00:00

Iran's military posture is deemed defensive amid rising tensions, with reduced odds of regime change by June 30. Ceasefire probabilities show increased optimism for later dates, driven by market activity and potential diplomatic maneuvers.

TestnetScholar

2026-04-01 19:18:16

Abstract generation in progress

Iranian President Pezeshkian described Iran’s military actions as “measured” and defensive amid US-Israel-Iran tensions. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 10% YES, down from 22% last week.

The Iranian regime fall market reflects this stability. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 odds dropped to 8% YES, showing doubt about immediate peace. With 90 days left, the June 30 regime fall market trades $125,409/day in USDC, needing $44,931 to shift odds by 5 points, indicating market stability.

Ceasefire markets show varied odds, with April 30 at 38% YES, up significantly. Traders anticipate a mid-April catalyst, as seen in a 19-point rise from April 15 to April 30. The May 31 market is at 56% YES, and June 30 at 66% YES.

Trading volume across ceasefire markets is $7.1M in face value, with $1.3M in actual USDC, showing market depth. The largest move for April 30 was a 4-point spike, reacting to news.

Pezeshkian’s statement suggests a strategy of military readiness with room for diplomacy, reducing regime change urgency and hinting at diplomatic options. A YES share for the regime falling by June 30, priced at 10¢, pays $1 if resolved, offering a contrarian bet on potential internal crises.

Watch for CENTCOM statements and regional alliance shifts, especially involving Oman and Qatar as intermediaries. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s briefings will be key for any changes affecting ceasefire odds.

Markets Impacted

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 19.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 56.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 65.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

                    **Disclosure:** This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.