The market has lost confidence in Trump's verbal ceasefire, and the probability of multiple US-Iran war incidents remains unchanged.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently repeatedly boosted expectations for U.S.-Iran talks in his remarks, and said he has had some contact with the Iranian side. Today, he again claimed that the Iranian president has proposed a ceasefire request, and was then immediately contradicted by the Iranian side at light speed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is “firmly under its control,” and that “it will not allow the enemies of this country to be opened up because of the absurd performance of the American president.” Multiple prediction markets show that Trump’s recent talking-head statements have stopped working; specifically: the probability of a “ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before the end of April” stays at 38%, still at a recent low, and the market does not think a ceasefire will quickly make progress. The probability of “shipping through the Strait of Hormuz before the end of April” continues to fall further, now at 20%, also at a recent low; the strait is firmly controlled by Iran and has become an economic-warfare weapon aimed at the United States. The probability of “U.S. ground forces entering Iran before the end of the month” remains high, now at 55%, and U.S. forces have continued to reinforce troop levels in the Middle East recently.