April started with relief from easing geopolitical tensions, boosting market sentiment and ending a five-month consecutive decline. However, the overall trend remains in a "recovery phase after a decline," with significant overhead resistance from trapped positions, likely leading to wide-range fluctuations rather than a straightforward bull market. Operationally, it is recommended to "lighten positions to try long, with strict stop-losses."

Key Data and Levels (as of April 1)

Bitcoin #四月行情预测 BTC(: approximately $68,200 (+1.7%), key support at $65,000, resistance at $70,000–72,000.

Ethereum )ETH(: approximately $2,110 (+3.8%), key support at $2,000, resistance at $2,200.

Market Status: Total market cap approximately $2.34 trillion, ending a five-month decline, with a slight increase in March.

Bull-Bear Logic Breakdown

Positive Factors (Support for Rebound)

Geopolitical Risk Easing: Signals of ceasefire from the US and Iran have improved market risk appetite, leading to a rebound in BTC and US stocks.

Historical Seasonality: Historically, April is a better month for BTC (average gain about 13%), providing psychological support.

Institutional Bottom Holdings: Despite weak prices, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows in March, indicating some long-term funds are accumulating on dips.

Negative Risks (Downward Pressure)

Technical Bearish Alignment: BTC and ETH are both facing dense moving averages above (e.g., BTC’s 50-day moving average at $71,000), with each rebound facing layered selling pressure.

Options Open Interest: Data from Deribit shows a large volume of put options at the $60,000 level, which could accelerate downward movement if broken.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts fluctuate; if liquidity remains tight, it will limit gains in risk assets.

April Market Outlook

Most Probable Scenario (60%): Wide-range consolidation, sideways movement. BTC mainly trading between $65,000–$72,000, ETH between $2,000–$2,300. Any minor news (such as geopolitical fluctuations) could trigger sharp volatility.

Less Probable Scenarios:

Upside Breakout: If volume supports a steady hold above $72,000, target over $75,000 (requires sustained large ETF inflows).

Downside Breakdown: If BTC falls below $65,000, it will test the psychological level of $60,000, with potential to drop further to $55,000–$58,000 strong support zone.

Operational Strategy Recommendations

Spot Traders: Wait and see or deploy in tranches. The market remains risky; avoid heavy chasing at highs. Consider light positions around $65,000 )BTC( / $2,000 )ETH(, with stops if prices break below.

Futures Traders: Short on the top, long on the bottom, quick in and out. Trade against the range boundaries with strict stop-losses (recommended leverage 50-100x, with $500–$1000 stop-loss).

Signals to Watch: Keep a close eye on ETF fund flows (whether net inflows continue) and developments in US-Iran tensions, as these are key variables to breaking the consolidation.

⚠️ Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; forecasts are for reference only. Please control your positions carefully, be prepared to zero out, and only invest funds you can afford to lose.