Precise Harvest! Before Trump's flip-flop, the oil market suddenly saw $320 million in abnormal short positions

Ask AI · Do unusual trades hint that insider information was leaked in advance?

Fifteen minutes before Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would strike Iranian energy facilities, trading volumes in WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures surged instantly. After the news was confirmed, oil prices plunged 14%, triggering intense allegations of insider trading and precise profit-taking.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would delay the strike on Iranian energy facilities by a few minutes. Traders placed bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars on oil futures contracts.

Market data reviewed by the BBC show that about 15 minutes before Trump posted a social media announcement, trading volume spiked.

After the news was released, oil prices fell sharply—plunging 14% within minutes. Traders who bet on this unexpected move made a substantial profit.

Some market analysts say this unusual trading behavior raises one possibility: those bets may have been placed after someone had prior knowledge of the decision.

The BBC contacted the White House for comment. A spokesperson told the Financial Times that the White House “will not tolerate any government officials using insider information to profit illegally.”

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not respond to the request for comment. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) declined to comment.

Global financial markets have been hit by the conflict in the Middle East. As oil and natural gas prices soared, stock prices fell; but at several moments when the war appeared likely to end, the market saw dramatic swings—oil prices dropped sharply while the stock market rose.

Last Saturday, Trump threatened that if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would “destroy” Iran’s power plants. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas usually pass through that strait.

The market was closed that day, but when Asian markets reopened on Monday morning, they fell across the board, and oil prices began to climb.

However, at 7:04 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday—before the U.S. market opened this week—Trump posted on his Truth Social platform saying that Washington and Tehran had a “very good and productive” conversation about a “comprehensive and lasting” resolution of hostilities.

The moment the news broke, the stock market surged back immediately. U.S. benchmark WTI crude fell to a low of $84 per barrel.

After that, observers closely examined what happened in the financial markets in the minutes before the president’s post.

At 6:49 a.m. Eastern Time, traders placed 734 bets on WTI crude oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). One minute later, that number jumped to 2,168 bets—equivalent to about $170 million.

The same pattern also appeared in another major crude benchmark contract. Between 6:48 and 6:50 a.m. Eastern Time, trading volume jumped from 20 trades to more than 1,650 trades, with a contract value of about $150 million.

Earlier Monday, prior data showed that in this time window during the day, normal trading volume would be far lower.

On Monday, S&P 500, Europe’s STOXX 50, and futures contracts in other markets also showed similar trading. This means that, in the minutes before Trump announced the news, traders were already betting that the share prices of large companies listed in the U.S. and Europe would rise.

Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at XAnalysts, said: “It clearly looks abnormal,” adding that at the time there were “no signs” that any serious talks were happening between the U.S. and Iran. “So when so much money is being put in to bet on oil prices falling, it raises lots of questions.”

The timing of these bets has led to questions: were they placed with prior knowledge of Trump’s announcement?

Rachel Winter, a partner at wealth management firm Killik & Co, said: “Right before he posted on social media, quite a lot of people bought oil contracts—contracts that allow them to profit from a drop in oil prices. So there are some suspicions of insider trading in the market. We don’t know whether that’s true, but we hope that the relevant authorities will investigate.”

Later on Monday, the Iranian government denied any negotiations took place, calling them “fake news.” Oil prices edged up again after those remarks.

Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X, saying that “fake news is used to manipulate financial and oil markets, to get out of the quagmire the U.S. and Israel are stuck in.”

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) directed the BBC’s inquiry to comments made by its CEO Nikhil Rathi to a special committee of the Treasury Department on Tuesday.

“We are monitoring the markets, and how we deal with market abuse will be based on the evidence we have in front of us. I can’t comment on the actions of our U.S. counterparts,” he said. “Our main focus is on market resilience and how markets are functioning. So far, despite some unusual volatility, the market has remained stable.”

This is not the first time U.S. foreign policy has been linked to a large volume of betting activity.

In January this year, bets surged on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, as bettors wagered that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office by the end of the month. A few hours later, he was arrested by U.S. forces. One account used a $32,537 bet to earn more than $436,000.